It's not the first time I've taken salvage kits to the Trading Post, but will adding a little spin increase my profit potential? Josh aka Raydon with a fresh steaming hot new episode of Gold Guru. YES, it's another gambling-type strategy. What can I say, my ancestors must have bet all their money on the races, because I can't keep away. If you're a bore yourself and enjoy a more "steady and reliable income" (boring!) Kyle's Guild Wars 2 Farmer's Almanac series is for you. Otherwise sit tight, and enjoy this beautifully handcrafted episode I made just for you.
Rune Salvaging Test Trials:
Ravaging Pirate Gloves of Divinity x5no buy order
-11s 55c +12s 60c = -84c (6.7%)
hypothetical buy order
-8s 5c +12s 60c = +2s 66c (21.1%)
Shaman's Pirate Hat of Divinity x10
no buy order
-24s 83c +35s 86c = +5s 65c (15.8%)
Shaman's Pirate Hat of Divinity x25
no buy order
-62s 56c +76s 88c = +2s 79c (3.6%)
Strong Conjurer Mask of Divinity x5
no buy order
-12s 80c +15s 60c = +46c (2.29%)
hypothetical buy order
-9s 20c +15s 60c = +4s 6c (26%)
If you get a chance to get out there and try this strat utilizing buy orders I'd love to hear your results, so be sure and leave them in the comments. Also, you could do us the honor and 'Like' our video; there would be something in it for you... MOAR videos! Seriously, thanks for watching guys. I've been Josh aka Raydon with the ShoddyCast. LATER.
Unfortunately there is just too much work involved in this "gamble" for it to really pay off. That and there are multiple gambles here. First gamble is that you are going to get a rune from the armor you salvage. Which depending on the salvage kit you use will cost you more money. The second is that you are not guaranteed to get a rune that is worth something. The runes you get for putting four of the same kind will give you the same result as 4 different runes put together. It is a random rune. And you also need to pay the TP selling fee. To be honest with what little testing you've done and data you've collected I'd be surprised to see this strategy pay off long term in any meaningful amount.
ReplyDelete"You are not guaranteed to get a rune that is worth something. The runes you get for putting four of the same kind will give you the same result as 4 different runes put together. It is a random rune."
DeleteI'm afraid I'm not following you. The rune you will get off of an item is knowable. Like in the examples above a "of Divinity" item will give you a Divinity Rune every time. You can choose items that have worthwhile runes. There's no gamble there. As for "putting four of the same kind" together, again I'm confused. This isn't the mystic forge. Any runes I got I sold outright.
"And you also need to pay the TP selling fee."
Yes, that's not a gamble though. And was taken into account each time.
Any way you slice it there is only one "gamble factor" in this strategy, like I mentioned. I'm sorry, I'm normally a guy that likes to avoid conflict, but did you even watch the video?
Please excuse my earlier comment. Somehow in my haste this morning I crossed up a couple things I was reading. (Didn't have a chance to watch the video at that time.)
DeleteWhat you're showing does work and the video shows it clearly. Sorry about that. Feel free to have the earlier comment removed as it is not relevant to what is being presented here.
No worries, I appreciate you took the time to not only come back and watch it, but comment too. You're a stand-up guy/gal in my book :)
DeleteGambling is stupid. You want a sure bet buy abunch of choca bars cause you know there going to be need in some recipe for the holidays. Im sure you will be able to double your money on this one.
ReplyDeleteYou want a sure way to make money buy chocolate bars a month ago at 7 copper like I did so you can sell them to speculators for 20x more than you invested. So what kind of ingredients should I be buying for Easter?
DeleteActually gambling is a great way to make slow but steady profit.
DeleteGambling methods are not often known by a large community and many people don't like gambling. It's less likely to get undercut and you may sell higher. Knowing the market you want to gamble in is key.
In addition so called "gambling" in GW2 is nothing but maths. If you start salvaging 2000 "Valuable Metal Scraps" things equal out. You won't get 1000 orichalcum-ore and you won't get 20, for sure. Gambling in GW2 is all about the average profit. The only problem is that gambling markets are not very large, with a few exceptions. For example you may get a huge profit if you buy and salvage "Shaman's Pirate Hat of Divinity" x10 but it won't work if you want to do it with x1000.
As a result gambling is less attractive to those with 100s of gold because those people need huge markets to invest into.
In my opinion speculation on anything like choca bars is way more random than any gambling method thus resulting in higher spikes/profit but less safety.
I have made 30g in the first month by simply tossing materials in the mystic forge. Thousands of them. It's all about average profit.
So please do not insult gambling :D
Lol, that is a good point and begs an interesting question. What's the bigger gamble? Buying a 1,000 items where you can mathematically say: there is a 80% chance each item will yield profit, and that that profit will compensate for the 20% that are losses. OR, to speculate on trends. You could say the first depends more on statistics and the second more on the individual's competence. In that case I'd place my money on the more tested and proven statistics.
Delete"In that case I'd place my money on the more tested and proven statistics."
DeleteI would agree but you have to test the methods on your own most of the time. Knowledge is key in that market so "proven statistics" won't get shared very often. Look at the discussion page of "valuable metal scraps" on the wiki. There is one single sample with a size of 100. That's close to nothing. In most cases you have to throw some gold into testing the gambling method on your own to get reliable results. And that's the real gamble. As soon as you got the average result you can tell if you will loose or make money with that method.
Obviously the more people know the average the lower the profit margin will be. Again, valuable metal scraps: More and more people notice the direct connection to orichalcum ore and mithril ore. My average is about 1,7 mithril per piece and 15% for orichalcum.
orichalcum =2s30c
mithril=40c
expected value: 1,70x40+0,15x230-3,5(one use of a basic kit)= 99c | ~84c (after fees)
There are 12000 buy listings around 80c. As you can tell, this item is too well known and we can't make a lot of profit here. Things may look different if you use mystic salvage kits or if mithril ore rises by 10c suddenly.
All of this shows: Gambling is way more complicated than buying 5000 butter and praying for a spike. And you can loose some money if your initial method-testing does not work out well.
In my opinion gambling requires at least as much individual competence as speculation does. That is the one and only reason why gambling is still a viable way to make gold: Most people are not able or not willing to figure all those average values out. There are so many variables in GW2 and the interdependence between items ensures that there will be room for "gabling" in the future as well. I will try to post about that topic in the forums as soon as they open, too. One more thing: Do not rely on the wiki-information for gambling. Never. I even salvaged completely different materials from what the wiki told me I would get. Booty bags and so on are not reliably tested either. I had some ugly losses because of that... Always use a reasonable starting sample.
Just salvaged 100 of one item using a buy order, got 80 runes as expected. Profit margin off the runes was 31.3% + whatever selling the salvage scraps was. Profit increased from 20% to 31% overnight aswell.
ReplyDelete