I got thinking today about the duration of Wintersday and what kind of effect that will have on the market. I couldn't speculate without looking back at the previous events and in doing so realised that there's been quite a leap forward in a short time. Join me in speculating about it here and in the forums.
Guild Wars 2 is still new but even so we've seen 3 distinct, large events. Halloween, Lost Shores and now Wintersday. Each had their own, unique impact on the economy:
Halloween brought much sought after skins; temporarily available materials and was the first and only event (thus far) to focus on the contents of black lion chests.
Lost Shores dropped a boat-load of precursors and named exotics into the trading post. Even more when the controversy over lag and disconnects for the elder karka led to everyone and their mother (nearly) receiving a chest with a chance at the same precursors and named exotics.
There are items in the gem store but much of the random element has been removed. I remember spending quite a lot on BLCs during Halloween and coming away disappointed (but wiser) - black lion chests weren't earners and they weren't even fun.
The duration of the event is extensive: 3 weeks! This means that temporary items (that we assume, because they're in recipes that won't go anywhere) in the market will be greater than Halloween... or will they?
Wintersday is kind of like Halloween without candy corn (which a lot of us are still sitting on and waiting to become valuable - which it might if the developers have decided never to implement an event in the same way as Halloween again). Snowflakes are a bit like fangs, nougat and skulls. Gifts are like treat bags. Halloween's endless tonic (well you can just plain craft these in the mystic forge at the moment - quite cheaply) is closest to the Unbreakable Choir Bell.
With this in mind - what can we speculate on, value wise? What have we learned from events past.
Personally, I think that bags are the way to go. Trick or treat bags aren't too cheap at the moment (in comparison to other Halloween items) and this might be down to their flexibility and the gamble involved. They might have a very desirable item (unbreakable choir bell, endless halloween tonic) or they might have useful items for crafts (snowflakes, fangs, skulls, and so on) - you're appealing to a broader market.
I'm looking into acquiring or farming wintersday gifts and leaving them unopened. What do you guys think? What investment opportunities have you got your eyes on?