Did you know that when you search for images on google with the search term 'spike' you get mostly images of a well known vampire? I decided I'd run with that after another long day of work and a nice, tired buzzing in my head.
There he is, almost like the petty, but handsome, lord of a supermarket. "Won't you buy my goods guv?" He reigns above all the items that are spiking or that have spiked in the past 48 hours. You can probably add more to that list - little movements you've seen elsewhere, but that's the majority of the items on my wintersday watchlist on gw2spidy.
Will other items spike? I think we might just see movement elsewhere but already the strong contenders for 'bubble' status (along with chocolate) are emerging.
What do we do with this information? Well hopefully you've been using the information we've been sharing in First Wintersday Information (Sparse), and Watch Out For Christmas Bubbles And Market Manipulation (and in each posts comments) to snag some of these items early before they rose. Maybe you snagged some even earlier (I believe Halloween Food - Revealed - specifically my comment right after it - was when I first mentioned it).
If not, have no fear. Some of these items (perhaps the most artificially inflated) are going to at least slump, if not crash, early as investors get the jitters. There's a while until Wintersday yet so there'll be time after that for another mini-bubble.
Some items are just beginning to rise so you can still get in early (but you'll be gambling - as we all are at the moment :P). Again, because Wintersday isn't here for days yet there's time for "investors" (bless) who don't check around for information until the last minute to buy up popular, predicted product lines in a panic.
Keep your eyes peeled here, or over on reddit, or on another GW2 fan sites (I believe in a wider community and not this site alone - though I'm purdy smrt ;D) or even the main GW2 site for news about Wintersday, videos (press sites are good for previews - like we saw during Halloween) and screenshots containing recipes.
Even if the recipes shown in screenies don't give anything good, the price of these items will spike like a vampire.
For you see, what we're really doing here is guessing what other players think will sell well - not what will be needed and what will sell well in reality.
Keep sharing your thoughts in this post, or any of the previous wintersday posts. I've been working on the forum and I hope to have it up soon which will, I hope, help keep ongoing discussion much neater and more informative.
PS I know I asked at the weekend for ideas for this week's posts but what with the market shenanigans I had to postpone the drafts I was working on for those ideas - they'll no doubt appear another time!
One item that might spike up is piles of cinnamon and sugar. They are sitting at 3c each on the tp right now, and it cost to craft is tied to cinnamon sticks. Plus if gingerbread cookies become a craftable recipe they could use them as well.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the price of these has been rising the past few days.
DeleteI agree that a lot of money is made in the short-term based on what other players think will sell well. Any of the items you listed are ripe for a bubble/pump and dump strategy.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the idea that any new high-level cooking recipes will involve current 400 mats has some logic behind it. Add to that the relative scarcity of saffron thread in the gw2 world and I think you got a winning investment. Will be following all of these speculation picks, but that's my winner.
I own approx 1500 poultry. Not too risky and i noticed the QTY is far less than many of the other ingredients. If it does end up being in high demand it will be worth it.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at walnuts and cinnamon, I found the QTY is so high that I cant imagine the prices really rising. But that is my personal view.
True, but if you buy 2000 Cinnamon at 2 copper and sell at 5 you are still making 100% profit although the actual money is not huge, the margin is.
DeleteMint leaf jumped from 80c to 3s, but that was only sell offers, the buy offers topped out at 1s so I don't think this is a market where profit is to be had
ReplyDeleteA lot of people go for the base materials, however I am trying to think outside of the box for this event.
ReplyDeleteToys = wood, dust, metals, gems, maybe even dyes?
food = sauces, seasoning, part crafted ingredients
I went for some sage stuffing (which is part crafted) but not seeing much movement yet. There's some speculation about winter veg mix too
DeleteKing Kio, I had this crazy Idea people will may like to look more like Santa Clause and Red dye may increase ^^
ReplyDeleteAnd agree.. not only food will rise.. but seems its the favorite place to speculate.. since its more easy to know what its coming foodwise as in the other territories.
ZoCks
Winter Ice and Red dye both had huge spikes in price when wintersday was announced. However, there are alternative hues of red to be bought for cheap which can be profitable if you can get a decent amount of them.
DeleteFruit cake:
ReplyDeleteBowl of Baker's Dry Ingredients
Bowl of Baker's Wet Ingredients
Handful of Trail Mix
is that a possible recipe?
The wet and dry ingredients are a possibility with baking (mince pies, christmas cake etc)
DeleteThere's vanilla bean in one of them so I don't imagine it's cheap right now anyway
I'm thinking it's possible that passion fruit will be used for a wintersday fruitcake recipe.
DeleteHere is a question, when should we sell? I am sitting on a bunch of eggs I bought at 17 to 22 copper and they keep going to 70ish, then down to 52. I assume such a large drop so quick is some person who does not understand basic economics undercutting by 25%.
ReplyDeleteThe question is we want to unload before the event, even before news of holiday recipes comes out so when is the date to make sure we are liquidated?
The actual price you want depends on your investment and how much you want to risk - I've been dropping percentages of certain stock lines as they spiked in little dribs and drabs, 250 here and there, just because I don't want to start a flood of speculated goods and crash the market.
DeleteI've also got some optimistic posts waiting for spikes when I'm asleep and can't react (eggs at 1s, chocolate at 2s - as current examples)
Yeah I did the same thing got a bunch of eggs at 10c and am having trouble deciding when to sell them. Do you think just listing them at say 55c and waiting for a rise will get them sold?
DeleteIt'd be great if that's all you needed to do but, in reality, that'll only work if fresh speculation begins before the event. I think it's quite likely to be honest but what I would do and what you should do may be different.
DeleteI like advising folks but I'll never tell you what to do because, most of what we talk about in these speculation posts is a gamble!
Remember that most of the recipes including Cinnamon are actually using the Cinnamon/Sugar mix. So it's a safe bet that if Cinnamon starts to spike, the Cinnamon/Sugar will spike soon after when the market realizes.
ReplyDeleteAs cinnamon would be used for eggnog and possibly gingerbread anything (maybe even weapons), it is likely to become highly used. It may take longer to spike than the other ingredients as it may be less obvious and in higher supply.
However, seeing as ANET likes the idea of cleaning out materials that are flooding the market, what better way to clean the market out than to use cinnamon for Gingerbread Weapons/Armor crafting? It wouldn't be the first time that food was used for crafting.
I feel fairly confident that they will use Christmas as a way to clean out the abundance of Chocolate, Walnuts, and Cinnamon sticks from the market after their drop nerf a while ago.
Cinnamon is one of those items that I've got thousands of but because when I bought it it was, what, 2 - 3 copper, I'm not concerned what happens.
DeleteIf we get a good spike pre-event (my gut tells me anything above 10 c is good, 15 c great) I'll probably unload and then I might look to soak up more during the event (if it mimics halloween which it probably will) for the reduction in drop rates that may come
Butter and poultry not doing bad at the moment
Deleteand 100k of walnut has been buyed in the las hours......
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12250
When this is not market manipulation, I dont know what it is ^^
Zocks
I don't remember but we didn't know about Halloween food until the event kicked off right?
ReplyDeleteThere were a couple of press previews giving the names (but not ingredients) of a few recipes - though the contents could be guessed from the names (strawberry ghost, spicy pumpkin cookie) to an extent
DeleteWho do you think the baddies are going to be during the event? My guess it will be the Inquest since there is an Asura Clause. My other thought would be ghosts, giving out the whole Jacob Marley vibe.
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of the inquest stealing presents/loot from folks - who knows! :P
DeleteWow, I'm trying to keep up with everything you guys are saving but it's just blowing my mind!
ReplyDeleteI've had some decent success flipping low-end, low-risk markets. Anything above a gold and I start losing sleep. Is there something I can read out there - a kind of primer, that can get me up to speed with how these spikes work and what speculating is? Or is just a learn-by-doing type of thing?
There's actually a lot of good material that helps you get the right mindset - not for games but for stock markets and trading and the like.
DeleteGames wise, it should be easier to get into the kind of 'zone' you need to be in (it's not real money so it's less likely you'll panic, close your mind off to possibilities etc).
When I first realised I was so into game economies I wanted to read everything about them - which is usually in blog format like this. That wasn't enough so I went supplemental and got a few books on trader psychology (the most applicable - given actual systems won't carry over for the most part).
I also love writing and theorising about game trading psychology and could be tempted to write about that but I'd like to know how popular that would be amongst you readers before doing so. I'm also no expert in psychology of course :D
Any clues here perhaps?
ReplyDeletehttp://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Wintersday
I'm keeping a eye on Gems. They spiked alot and I don't know if they will stay as high as it is now. 2G for 100 gems. Might be higher ?
ReplyDelete