I had good fun over the weekend on our FB page. I often find that I've got too much to do socially over the weekend to get much playtime in and when I do I don't get enough time to write up a post so, as a little experiment I kept my 2nd monitor focused on the fan page to engage with anyone who wanted a chat.
I like the format so I'm going to do it again when I can :) - I even got some good ideas for this week's posts which I'll get to but today, one item of news really caught my eye: chocolate bubbles!
We've talked about Christmas before: I think one of the earliest blog mentions was at the end of Halloween. The time is nearly upon us now though.
We're starting to see speculation creating peaks in the prices of a few materials. In particular, the past 24 hours saw a leap in the price of bars of chocolate check it out:
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I like the format so I'm going to do it again when I can :) - I even got some good ideas for this week's posts which I'll get to but today, one item of news really caught my eye: chocolate bubbles!
We've talked about Christmas before: I think one of the earliest blog mentions was at the end of Halloween. The time is nearly upon us now though.
We're starting to see speculation creating peaks in the prices of a few materials. In particular, the past 24 hours saw a leap in the price of bars of chocolate check it out:
There's some speculation about this hike. It's a pretty pronounced spike and it's counteracted after with a sharp drop. My own theory is this is one big spender (or a conglomerate of big spenders) trying to create the bubble early. What do you think?
Aside from the causes for this one spike, it's becoming quite obvious that bars of chocolate are going to be growing in value up to Christmas. I hope you all have some stacks waiting to sell! If not then I'd watch for chocolate dropping after a pronounced spike.
When these spikes appear and word spreads, chocolate hoarders will be looking to offload. Plenty of people do this in a silly fashion, unloading all their chocolate and undercutting like crazy. When enough of them do so the price takes a pretty sharp tumble. That's when you want to buy.
Other investors will be watching the price and doing the same thing. The price will start to rise again.
In fact, whatever force produced this first, pronounced price spike will likely keep doing so in the hope of making 25% (after fees) on thousands and thousands of chocolate.
For a quick 'out' wait for what you think is the next spike. You can do this multiple times. Look at the graph above (on GW2Spidy where the info will be fresh) and take note of the patterns that emerge. It's like playing with real stocks and it's good fun :)
You can also buy a chunk in one of the troughs and hold on until the bubble is just about to burst then sell.
On that note - we're looking at a bubble that bursts shortly before or just after the content drops so you'll want to sell at a peak before the Christmas event starts.
Take your cue from the way pumpkins, ghost peppers and strawberries behaved just after that first Halloween cooking recipe teaser.
What do you guys think! Share your thoughts.
Same thing with orange: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12351
ReplyDeleteLooks like Christmas speculation is starting early.
There will be more - I suspect it's a group acting to try to boost the potential of the bubble for the seasonal content. That's something a lot of people can take advantage of mind you.
DeleteCinnamon might be something to keep an eye. It's currently at a really low price (3c) with a really high supply (over 2,000,000 according to gw2spidy). It might be one of the main crafting ingredient for Christmas.
DeleteCinnamon sticks? I really hope they move away from 2c-3c like butter and chocolate bars did...
DeleteCinnamon is a safe bet for 'in demand' but the supply might not be in the same category as chocolate or butter (something that had a drop rate reduction).
DeleteStill, it's probably going to be involved in Christmas somehow.
Sage leaf, sage stuffing, onion possibly too - are these kinds of things Christmassy world wide (or America at least given Anet's locale)? They are in where I'm from.
DeleteWhat do you guys think of Egg speculation. What is a more quintessential Christmas item than eggnog?
ReplyDeleteI've invested in cinnamon, as it is super cheap, a few stacks of eggs, and I wish i bought more chocolate, but what can you do... hindsight is great. I also grab mint and cloves.
DeleteI think eggs have potential - cloves too.
DeleteI also wonder if there'll be any 'roast' meat recipes or speculation. Perhaps poultry or red meat.
Those are both good ideas! Low supply... compared to some of the other cheap materials... and not a huge risk for loss if things go south. Especially the red meat.
DeleteI was looking at poultry and noting the supply is totally different from red meat and a lot of the slabs of poultry just got bought up ^^ I'm wondering if it's a reader or other speculator.
DeleteI recently bought around 20K of poultry :D
DeleteCandy Corn should also be a potential market for Christmas
ReplyDeleteHow so? Just interested in hearing your reasoning! I'm predicting Candy Cane mining nodes, to mine Candy Cane shards from. Unless Anet decides they don't want to flood the market with yet another dirt-cheap material.
DeleteCandy Cane shards were a collectable drop from GW1, so i think it's very likely they'll exist in some form.
I think Anet don't want to flood the market with yet another "evented" crafting material. Candy are a good thing for "most" of events so they may be used in some way during christmas. However I don't think they will be the main crafting material of christmas because it would be to "main stream" to do so and people may feel Anet is lazy about creating new stuff.
Deleteaint walnuts a christmas themed cooking incredident too?
ReplyDeleteI think they are too yep. There's two levels of guesswork here - which will Arenanet choose and which will the majority of speculators bet on :)
Deleteyup.. and the ones the speculators choose i sell shortly before the event starts and the ones a-net chooses ill sell while the event is taking place right?. got walnuts, saffron and cinnamon :D (im the óne from top^^dont know if u can difference between the Anons^^)
DeleteAt first I was ignoring them do due to massive supply, but then I thought, like the red meat, it is so cheap there is a low loss percentage if things don't work out. Also, the supply is large enough that Anet may consider doing something to increase their desirability, and what better time than X-mas? It's a gamble, but what the heck!
DeleteFruitcake was a popular drop in GW1, so maybe holiday fruit cakes will be a new recipe? If only these new recipes would pan out to be popular. (Ok, still bitter about the ghost peppers. But it was a good learning experience!)
"the ones the speculators choose i sell shortly before the event starts and the ones a-net chooses ill sell while the event is taking place right?"
DeleteI'll let the poster below you answer that to an extent:
"If only these new recipes would pan out to be popular. (Ok, still bitter about the ghost peppers. But it was a good learning experience!)"
:) Each scenario is it's own master but what we saw with the majority of the Halloween recipes was that most of the recipes didn't live up to the speculation "hype" - the bubble.
My current speculation for christmas, ingredient wise is:
ReplyDeleteBlueberries - christmas cake
pepper - there was a cheap supply, good chance it will feature in any meat based recipies
winter Vegetable Mix - Speaks for itself
Another bubble popped in the last hours....really tempted to sell ^^
ReplyDeleteman chocolate might hit 1s soon...how can it get so high? I know drop rates reduced but comon!
ReplyDeletechocolate is selling at 79c atm! Man thats quite sick how fast it raised! It has nearly doubled since yesterday....
ReplyDeleteAnyone in here who bets on portobellos? i tried this out and its not a lot but a safe money ;)
Already seeing "some" movement on eggs!
ReplyDeleteI just got to enjoy/witness quite the chocolate spike! From .89 to 2.31 in seconds! I even managed to score some profit for both my wife and myself. Has dropped back to 1.75 for now, but I'm keeping my eyes peeled!
ReplyDeletemy god chocolate bars are going nuts! shot up to over 2 silver today o.O
ReplyDeleteDamn i wish I had thought ahead and about some a week ago. have 9 sitting in bank is it heh i fail.
I have a thousand of chocolate bar right now, bought them at 5 copper ! Do you think I should sell them now or shall I wait longer ? Seeing a 1400% profit is quite AWESOME :)
ReplyDeleteI sold 10 stacks today at just under 2s...bought for 2c..leaving just 1 stack incase the price goes to 1g ahah... I am not sure, I cant see this price being maintained but I might be wrong
ReplyDeleteAn answer for most of you amazed by chocolate:
ReplyDeleteCan it go higher? Yes, that's possible.
Is it going to burst soon? I have to think so - although I don't see this as natural market behaviour (I sense invisible hand[s])
I sold a large chunk of my chocolate at ~1s. I predicted a third spike and it turned out that I was being conservative.
I'll look to buy back in if it drops again. Maybe 70c per is feasible. But if those driving this bubble do something stupid (unleash lots of chocolate at once) 70c will equate to a loss.
What are you guys planning?
I think I am gonna watch very carrefully and if I see any selling amount to high I will sell everything I have. Otherwise I am going to wait this weekend in order to sell them at a even higher price. I don't think chocolate bar at more than 1s can stay much longer. It seems to beautiful to be true :)
Delete