Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Take Advantage of New Content Speculation




I know we like speculating ourselves and the goal of speculation is to guess a winner but there's other benefits to trying to predict what items will increase and decrease in price with patch changes.

Take, for example, Black Lion Chests


Over Halloween you guys will have noted that during the event they held a pretty low price point. Higher than now, but only by a few copper.
 
The real spike was just before the event landed - when people had heard and speculated that the chests were going to be oh so expensive. Imagination and speculation drove up demand and they soared to 30 copper each.
 
That was the first time we'd seen this kind of thing with new content and each time you can bet that the spike will be lower but we're already seeing movement in black lion chests now. The announcement doesn't even mention chests but that could be a double bluff (and so speculation goes on :P)!

There will be other opportunities, chests are the first but I'm noticing movement with piles of putrid essences too. I love those essences! I've a stock of 1,000 myself from close to vendor price but there's no way of telling if these are going to be needed in this patch or a near patch. 

It's speculation (some believe it's pump and dump too) and lots of players are doing it every day. Speculation is powerful.

This is the first way you can take advantage of speculation. You figure out what people will logically assume will be needed for a new patch or for new content well in advance. Stock up on those items when they're still at their 'Post Halloween Low' kind of levels (think chests before the last Lost Shores announcement) and then sell when the speculation is reaching a peak - not when the content is launched. 

It's a surer bet than waiting for the content to hit and watching prices plummet. 

You can benefit in another way from speculation. 

Look at the guesswork going on elsewhere. Orichalcum is falling in price. There are numerous theories about this. Some say it's only natural - more players have multiple 80's and can farm more. More servers have Ori maps that make finding it easier. 

At the same time, players have been told about this new tier of materials coming with the Lost Shores content. A lot are worried this'll reduce Ori's value: "Dump Ori now" is something I'm reading in a lot of places. 

I'm not fully behind this. The fact that there's some new nodes doesn't mean Ori won't be needed. Look at the types of items that Orichalcum makes in the mystic forge. Some of them look incredible and still will even if new resources become available. 

I'm not advocating you buy Orichalcum (yet - at least not at the current price) but keep your eyes on it. You could stock up on a valuable material while negative speculation is driving the price down then wait for the market to stabilise when there's little actual change in the supply/demand for the material, bringing the price back up.

Lost Shores is content where speculation is more tricky and price movements are going to be all over the place - there's no theme to the items that will be popular after launch. We'll have to check as many resources as we can for word on what the masses are going to speculate on. 

But the Christmas event - that's themed and much more predictable! Eggs, cinnamon (and other traditional xmas spices), snow truffles, butter (all that baking), anything mentioning snow or that's involved with Christmas festivities at all, are bound to spike before the content drops and now's the time to get them before the first wave of speculators start moving. 
Share your thoughts! 

18 comments:

  1. https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/linsey-murdock-unveils-new-high-end-ascended-gear/?utm_source=client

    Looks like they are showing off a little about the new ascended items. And judging from the ring they posted, it looks like the new gear will indeed be better than current craftables. Unless they are soulbound on acquire, I can only imagine current items and materials dropping in value.

    Also, they confirmed a new way to get a precursor. We have yet to see how easy it will be, or if it will only be certain precursors, but again, I predict a drop in precursor value as well. (Not that I am even close to having one myself, but for those with the gold to trade them, something to keep in mind.)

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  2. well and dont forget gems they will rise aswell since new skins/minis will be avaible in the bltc. I think ill invest like 100g in gems worked great during haloween

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    1. I can never seem to make money off gems... I guess I get on the boat too late. And it seems like they are pricey enough already that it will be harder to turn a meaningful profit. Then again, I barely have any gold to invest in anything. ;_;

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  3. Flekk Stoneguard - Sorrows Furnace serverNovember 13, 2012 at 4:29 PM

    If anything I think level 400 tier materials will be NEEDED to craft alongside the new material. Whether or not the ascended items are soul bound, I highly doubt they will unload new fabric, new metal, new inscription mats, all just for one area. I concur with the strategy to watch ori prices drop and snag some when its low.

    On a similar note, given that this new area is dealing with the sea I'm thinking scales might be the common material drop of the area (the way bones are to Orr), so I'm dumping the high level scales I have (since they sell for a hefty sum). Of course this is pure speculation.

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    1. I think that speculating about what kind of items suit the theme of the new area is a great idea - they're nautical and it's not likely they'll make new items for the entire loot table. Some items that exist now will carry over.

      It's a pretty solid line of reasoning though, as you say, it's still speculation.

      On the subject of crafting ascended items - I'm not sure that'll happen this patch.

      From what I understand it's accessory and back item drops first and they plan on expanding the ascended item line as the months roll on.

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    2. Flekk Stoneguard - Sorrows Furnace serverNovember 13, 2012 at 5:35 PM

      I concur with what you said about ascended armor (I re-checked the GW2 official post). I did find this nugget floating around the internet about Lost Shores though: "a new resource which brings 200 new recipes to the game for crafters." http://guildwars.incgamers.com/ Whether or not this site is reliable is to be determined. But if thats the case I would imagine the new resource combines with old resources to make good (but not ascended) stuff.

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    3. The latest videos mention one new resource only - I believe I heard 'something-fruit' I'm going to have to do a bit more research :P

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  4. I suspect they'll have the weapon skins from the halloween event again available either here or at Christmas (candy corn for Christmas too?). Thinking I should sell now... maybe... I don't know. :P

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    1. As a long time GW1 player, I'm confident that Halloween skins won't be available until next year, aside from the crafted stuff. X-mas uses Candy Cane Shards as the holiday crafting material, and I can definitely see that happening again. Almost guaranteed to have more black lion skins too.

      It would be a hoot if the Gingerbread and Candy weapons were crafted by the cooking profession, but that's unlikely.

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    2. I dont think they will re-release the halloween skins for christmas/cursed shores content because of:
      1. the skins would disappear out of the black lion chests at the 15th.
      2. Christmas and halloween are not the same, I suspect they will use cancycane skins and cookie shields and such.

      My advise, dont sell them, keep them in your bank. These skins will start to rise after the 15th, and might have to wait further after that. Maybe a couple of weeks, or even months.

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  5. Bought over night 1500 putrid essences at 77c, vendor price at 48 so there is a bottom line. I hope for better receipes with it coming update since the lower tier essences even outprice putrid by far. Pure speculation :p


    Can you make a comment on the new dye prices wheter it still makes sense to gamble?

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    1. I haven't gambled on dyes in a while - been focusing on this new content and such. I have had a glance at the prices though, they certainly shot up.

      The dye shuffling was always about cheap fun with a potential for a nice pay off without focusing too much on the profit.

      I won't be following my old strategy but I may find something else that most are overlooking and have some fun.

      I do like getting my mystic forge fix - I just don't like the expense of the most popular mystic forge gambles.

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  6. As it is a ring. The current prices of ruby emerald and beryl seams to be around 2-4.5 silver range. I am guessing a bulk of these may be needed to craft the new rings..... I am speculating that... It may possibly double in price.... going for 10s atleast.....

    The dye seams to be ever green area to shuffle.... That is buy and sell immediately..... I made nearly 1g in the weekend... buy just shuffling.... spending hardly 10-20 mins in my overall gaming hours.

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  7. I think dhivya sen is right on about ruby, beryl, etc.

    If ascended isn't craftable, they will still increase due to new gear people will need to put upgrades in. Besides, there's not much room for losses above vendor price on any of them except ruby.

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  8. Large Bone and Ancient Bone are meant to rise. Time to buy !
    Also, think about small scale and large scale.
    Beryl Crystal and Ruby Crystal are also the ones that you need to look for.

    All those items will be to put in your to-do list for Lost Shore =)

    Enjoy !

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  9. I bought 1k of cinnamon sticks - I hope it pays off :) Small investment I know, but I've never done it

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  10. It's me again ! (From Nov.14, 8h21PM)
    Here are the price for today of the following item I was talking about yesterday

    Ancient Bone : bought at 54c
    Sell day 1: 59c
    Sell day 2: 64c

    Heavy Bone: bought at 1 21
    Sell day 1: 1 42
    Sell day 2: 1 65

    Small Scale: bought at 1 64
    Sell day 1 : 1 80
    Sell day 2 : 1 86

    Large Scale: bought at 1 25c
    Sell day 1 : 1 53
    Sell day 2 : 1 44 =(

    Large Bone : bought at 99c
    Sell day 1 : 1 05
    Sell day 1 : 1 24

    Beryl Crystal : bought at 1 12c
    Sell day 1 : 1 36
    Sell day 1 : 1 37

    Ruby Crystal : bought at 1 82c
    Sell day 1 : 2 19
    Sell day 2 : 2 80

    As you can see, the most variation comes from Ruby Crystal, Heavy Bone, Large Bone. As for the scale, it might not as much obvious than bone and that's why I presume the speculation is less on this side.

    Hopes it gives you an idea and give it a shot =)

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  11. About xmas speculation. I'm surprised no one is talking about walnuts.

    They look a great investment: you can buy at +1c from vendor price, hedging the risk, and they are a typical xmas ingredient.

    Bought 3k and I'll probably buy more.

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