Wow, what fun! I enjoyed the event and hope for more like it. Let's take stock, in an economic sense. What can we expect now the event is over?
There were a couple of good comments from Arthur Van Den Driest at the bottom of yesterday's excellent (yet again!) Shoddycast post. Arthur asked (I'm paraphrasing):
"Do you think Halloween items are still going to rise? Because greatsword skins and candycorn are dropping like hell"
I answered his comment with one of my own in which I explained that these items are limited supply and there are very few factors that would cause a price drop for limited supply items:
News indicating a change to their limited status;
Increased number of players online (increase in market supply);
End of event where they were required ("Halloween is over, best get rid of these").
I'd like to make an addition to this now I've devoted time to a full post on this:
The end product made with the limited supply item isn't desirable (low demand).
Now, of all these reasons, I believe the increased player presence (Friday night here!) and the event ending and players getting rid of things they see 'no more use for ever' are the two main factors at play.
There's no reason for a smart investor to offload this early (it's barmy).There's no news that I'm aware of. There's not been enough time for the market to truly decide that the end product (which in the case of the greatsword has proven pretty desirable in any case) has no value.
Halloween items are still set to rise. I can think of almost no reason, without intervention by Arenanet, why they will not rise. Remember this is a long term investment. The prices will rise and fall (as each investors personal profit threshold is reached). Personally, unless I'm in dire need of cash, I don't plan on selling at a rapid rate until spring of next year.
The really big gamble is whether anyone will wait to see if Halloween next year includes all new items and resources. If that's true then prices will just continue to climb. If not you'll need to wait again.
Next on the horizon is the November update - details on this are sparse. It's also not too early to start planning Christmas plans of attack :) - cooking materials are likely to generate another speculation bubble in the 2 weeks before the event so stocking up now is guaranteed to pay off (if you guess what will be speculated on correctly). Things like cinnamon and cloves and the like are bound to be among the most speculated.
Looking forward to reading your thoughts!