Friday, November 2, 2012

End of Halloween - What's Next?


Wow,  what fun! I enjoyed the event and hope for more like it. Let's take stock, in an economic sense. What can we expect now the event is over?

There were a couple of good comments from Arthur Van Den Driest at the bottom of yesterday's excellent (yet again!) Shoddycast post. Arthur asked (I'm paraphrasing): 

"Do you think Halloween items are still going to rise? Because greatsword skins and candycorn are dropping like hell"

I answered his comment with one of my own in which I explained that these items are limited supply and there are very few factors that would cause a price drop for limited supply items:

Investors offloading; 
News indicating a change to their limited status; 
Increased number of players online (increase in market supply); 
End of event where they were required ("Halloween is over, best get rid of these"). 

I'd like to make an addition to this now I've devoted time to a full post on this:

The end product made with the limited supply item isn't desirable (low demand). 

Now, of all these reasons, I believe the increased player presence (Friday night here!) and the event ending and players getting rid of things they see 'no more use for ever' are the two main factors at play. 

There's no reason for a smart investor to offload this early (it's barmy).There's no news that I'm aware of. There's not been enough time for the market to truly decide that the end product (which in the case of the greatsword has proven pretty desirable in any case) has no value. 

Halloween items are still set to rise. I can think of almost no reason, without intervention by Arenanet, why they will not rise. Remember this is a long term investment. The prices will rise and fall (as each investors personal profit threshold is reached). Personally, unless I'm in dire need of cash, I don't plan on selling at a rapid rate until spring of next year. 

The really big gamble is whether anyone will wait to see if Halloween next year includes all new items and resources. If that's true then prices will just continue to climb. If not you'll need to wait again. 

Next on the horizon is the November update - details on this are sparse. It's also not too early to start planning Christmas plans of attack :) - cooking materials are likely to generate another speculation bubble in the 2 weeks before the event so stocking up now is guaranteed to pay off (if you guess what will be speculated on correctly). Things like cinnamon and cloves and the like are bound to be among the most speculated.

Looking forward to reading your thoughts! 


  1. I'm happy w/ the prices I paid for candy corn (5-6 copper each) but it almost looks like I should have stocked up AFTER Halloween during this great "cleanup of inventories" seemingly going on right now. ATM I could get corn for 3c each!

    Anyone think that's a good plan for Wintersday and future holidays?

    1. Think you are right on that one. But seeming this as the first big season event, we just gotta speculate on how things work in the Guild Wars 2 economie, such as stocking up on gems before festives.

  2. I have invested on the scythe and ghastly shield skin but the prices really dropped by heaps!. I should of bought them now, there still lot of supply left hopefully soon it would increase =.=

  3. I am at 100k candy corn bought for 3c (like 90%) i sold like 50% lastnicht for 6-8 to get my invest back but now i will just wait for 1 month and see what happens :)

    1. This guy has his sh*t together!

      I have about 1250 cc tied up right now, and honestly, I couldn't be happier. Unless Anet screws us over, cc is a beautiful thing rivaling it's real life counterpart. It's extremely useful and it stacks to 250, AND its limited to a holiday event. Even if they stay at 1-3, I will just use them myself for the 30% MF

  4. I bought 5500 candy corn at 5c and 2500 at 4c. I don't know how long the price is going to stay low and it takes alot of room in my inventory.

    I also got 1500 nougat center, plastic fang and chattering skull. Nobody really wants to buy those as the price stays at 38c. Is it doom to fail?

  5. and i thought i had a lot by saving up 1500 candy corn through all those mk dungeon runs! i can see the price of the candy corn increasing only if the supply really starts to dip a little bit. there seems to be a giant amount of corn on the market. when those are gone, most of the people saving theirs will begin to put them on the market. There are some nice recipes that include cc, my favorite being the spicy pumpkin cookie or whatever it was, that gives 30% mf. im optimistic that prices will increase in a few months. another thing to consider are all the new players coming into gw2 from here on out that have missed the halloween event

  6. Great point about November spec ;)

    My basket for the halloween event is primarily candy corn with a side of skin, hold the skin... wait that sounds odd...

    (hold the skin as in hold on dont sell)

    Why i avoided the other halloween mats?
    Outside of a few rare instances, there isn't anything good to make with them. Candy corn is required for everything though! So you "can't lose" what do i mean by that? If something pops up that is very lucritive to craft or use the other mats for it will require the corn! On the off chance that Anet decides to make a mystic forge recipe that requires the other mats, it will likely require candy corn as well so your investment is still solid ;)

    Like I said before hold your skins until the 15th of Nov ish. You should see a rise in the price around that time if you want to look for a short term profit.

    What should you do if you miss the boat and fail to offload your skins while they remain high? Keep in mind that the market is huge and can turn on a dime, so even a day late can mean a gold short. Well you have 3 options.

    1). Hold- sometimes waiting is the right option. If you think that the price ceiling on a skin is sky high and that in just a few months you can make 1000000000% profit then holding is the best plan.

    2). Sell- Sometimes referred to as cutting your losses. This is the hardest place to find yourself. Not because you made a bad investment, because thats bound to happen! but because most people fool themselves into thinking that losing half your money now is worse then no money a year from now. You are probably thinking that I am being foolish, but when you look at a investment as money thats tied up that could be reinvested you will understand how this can be the case.

    Here is an example: Lets say I bought Holiday skin X for 5G and its sunk to 2.5G already =(. I missed the boat and the price has remained fairly static with only a small increase over the last few weeks. But it IS climbing I tell myself! 6 months later its back at 5G but I know it will go higher so I decide to hold out longer. almost a full year and the skin jumped big time to 25G. Sweet I just made 20G profit (high fives his friend who is in on his hover bike drinking tang) didn't I make a smart investment? from a passive trader stand point YES, from an active trader standpoint NO.
    2.5G could be reinvested in dyes at a meager 10% return per day and earn way more profit in that amount of time!

    Sometimes having liquid assests is better in terms of investment then a slow dog of an investment.

    3). BUY- If you have the funds you can take this opportunity to rebuy in at a lower price. You already know someone out there would pay more for the object given the right circumstances. (you know because that someone was you!) Armed with that knowledge you can gaze in your crystal ball and determine if those same circumstances are going to be replicated in the near future. (Your best guess can work in lou of a crystal ball)

    Well i have rambled on for long enough heh
    I just love market analysis too much!

  7. I swear that the trading post/investing in the market, is one of my favorite things in this game. -Joey2beers

  8. Alright, I stocked up on ghastly grimmin shield skins (10) and greatsaw heartsword skins (2). Now im just hoping they will rise like a boss!

  9. I will be investing for Thanksgiving and Wintersday heavily in the following, snow truffles, eggs, cinnamon, yams, and pumpkins(again), mint leaves. -Joey2beers