Friday, October 19, 2012

Holiday Event Speculation

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My favourite topic of the past ~10 hours. Halloween event market speculation! 

I hope most of you caught the announcement (if not, here it is) but one of the most important pieces of information contained there is this tidbit: 

"The Black Lion Chest is getting a spooky upgrade for Halloween. Between October 23 and November 5 each Black Lion Chest you open has a chance to give you one of six exclusive Halloween-themed weapon skins!"

Well, as you can imagine black lion chests spiked - hard. They reached up to about 50 copper and are fluctuating now between 20 and 40 copper. People who invested heavily (500,000 chests were bought within 90 minutes of this announcement) are reselling at a higher price point now - intending to make profit more than once as the prices go up and down. There will be more peaks and troughs to come.

After all, this is just off the back of the announcement 10 hrs back. Those who hang out in sites that speculate about GW2 profits and trends are the force making the price move now. When this information goes wild to the unkempt masses - particularly over the holiday event period when players start seeing these skins and asking "omg! where do you get that weapon?!" - you can expect the price to do some more dancing up and down. 

Because of this, right now, even at these inflated prices, there's still potential profit to be made. It's not impossible that we'll see chests go over the 1 silver mark. It's a bit late to the party though.

At the same time, the real winners here are those who had stockpiled when they were at 3 copper and are now reselling back to those of us who were sleeping or slow to get the news at 35 copper plus. They may rebuy when the chests go under 20 copper. They may not. 
For those who don't feel like investing at this time at these prices (or for those who can't afford it at the current market price) I think what you should do is store this information for each holiday event... 

It's possible that chests will never drop as low as they have been again (3 or 4 copper). But then again I thought the same thing after Arenanet temporarily added the permanent mystic forge crafting items to the chests (and they spiked then too).  

Yet the prices fell anyway. The market forgets. Coming up to Christmas and other holidays, we should always remember :) In fact, if you bought chests when they were on the rise and are worried about 'missing' the best time to sell - don't. Hold onto them and watch this same process repeat every holiday event. Unless you hear word they'll change how chests function. 

There's another knock on effect to this current maelstrom of activity. Each of these chests will need a key to open. Those keys (though they can drop from the chests - say an average of 3 chests per key) are bought with gems only (rarely they drop, oh so rarely). 

So players will need gems. Now a lot of players won't be able to afford the $ cost of gems so they'll get them by exchanging gold for gems. 

THIS means that the gem > gold ratio is going to change. Gems are going to rocket up in value.  If you have the cash to spare and plan on buying some gems sell them for gold during a peak this holiday event. 

When things die down and the price corrects itself, buy far more gems back for less gold. 

Investing and speculating is never a certain thing but right now, there appears to be a good chance that clever investment will earn you many times your investment back over the week to come!

Anyone else noted interesting things happening? Or maybe you have a holiday event prediction that you've bet on and are confident enough to share? 



  1. I have buyed around 1000 sugar pumpinks.. because PUMPKINGS! :D , not sure if they will be needed, but if so.. its something to make profit from.. let´s see.


  2. Have they actually confirmed that Halloween items will drop from chests looted prior to the event?

    Also I'm a bit weary of playing the Gems market (though it's doubled since last week!!!) but since I want a bank upgrade I might buy some and see if it really spikes.

    1. No confirmation, but logically they as a company would like as much money as possible. If everyone had to collect new chests for the event there'd be potentially less key spending.

      Again - investing and speculating is risky but I find it fun (especially when it pays off ;) )

  3. I honestly dont think this is a smart idea (buying alot of chests that is)

    just because its a resellers market at the moment.


    1. Right now chests have dropped to 20 copper and under again. This is mostly the guys who bought in bulk worrying that they're not going to make as much profit as they thought.

      It may be that the spike that hit as the news was released was the only peak we'll see - I doubt this myself I think they'll peak again this week above 50 copper. I could of course be wrong.

      If you have money to spare I think there are worse investments (think of future holiday events too and a weaker coin due to inflation).

  4. Im still very sceptical, that being said, i have purchased alot of the chests (im same anon as above, just too lazy to create an account) Ive actually spend around 9g on chests at 14c each hoping they will spike above 50s and your right, ive already listed em all around the 40c-1s range and will see.

    However, im more doing thsi as a gamble for fun rather then an investment because, as i said, im very sceptical this will work out.

    Ofcourse if you did buy a trunkload at 3c it cant go wrong for ya :P

    1. Yep and I think, for people with less coin and who are looking to make money and are reading this, I want to emphasise that again:

      The guys and gals who bought chests at 3-5c are the winners hands down :)

      Right now it's more of a gamble but the odds aren't bad. When you play a market you can only weigh up the factors you know (and throw in a little psychology to predict how people will drive prices up or down).

      PS I assume you mean 50c there not 50s (because you mention 40c - 1s after) ;)

  5. Yeah definitely meant 50c ;)

    I want to say, this is a decent website and i enjoy reading here for sure.

    But I wouldve been alot happier if you posted hey buy some black lion chests before they rose up :)

  6. I followed the chest market in the few last days. I happen to live in Australia so when here it's night-time (~2am) there is a ton of people logged on from Europe and US and you can buy cheaply chests (~15c). When here it's morning you can easily resell those at 24c.

    I advise you to try to follow how the market goes at different time of the day to learn when it's a favorable time for buying and when for selling.