My favourite topic of the past ~10 hours. Halloween event market speculation!
I hope most of you caught the announcement (if not, here it is) but one of the most important pieces of information contained there is this tidbit:
"The Black Lion Chest is getting a spooky upgrade for Halloween. Between October 23 and November 5 each Black Lion Chest you open has a chance to give you one of six exclusive Halloween-themed weapon skins!"
Well, as you can imagine black lion chests spiked - hard. They reached up to about 50 copper and are fluctuating now between 20 and 40 copper. People who invested heavily (500,000 chests were bought within 90 minutes of this announcement) are reselling at a higher price point now - intending to make profit more than once as the prices go up and down. There will be more peaks and troughs to come.
After all, this is just off the back of the announcement 10 hrs back. Those who hang out in sites that speculate about GW2 profits and trends are the force making the price move now. When this information goes wild to the unkempt masses - particularly over the holiday event period when players start seeing these skins and asking "omg! where do you get that weapon?!" - you can expect the price to do some more dancing up and down.
Because of this, right now, even at these inflated prices, there's still potential profit to be made. It's not impossible that we'll see chests go over the 1 silver mark. It's a bit late to the party though.
At the same time, the real winners here are those who had stockpiled when they were at 3 copper and are now reselling back to those of us who were sleeping or slow to get the news at 35 copper plus. They may rebuy when the chests go under 20 copper. They may not.
For those who don't feel like investing at this time at these prices (or for those who can't afford it at the current market price) I think what you should do is store this information for each holiday event...
It's possible that chests will never drop as low as they have been again (3 or 4 copper). But then again I thought the same thing after Arenanet temporarily added the permanent mystic forge crafting items to the chests (and they spiked then too).
Yet the prices fell anyway. The market forgets. Coming up to Christmas and other holidays, we should always remember :) In fact, if you bought chests when they were on the rise and are worried about 'missing' the best time to sell - don't. Hold onto them and watch this same process repeat every holiday event. Unless you hear word they'll change how chests function.
There's another knock on effect to this current maelstrom of activity. Each of these chests will need a key to open. Those keys (though they can drop from the chests - say an average of 3 chests per key) are bought with gems only (rarely they drop, oh so rarely).
So players will need gems. Now a lot of players won't be able to afford the $ cost of gems so they'll get them by exchanging gold for gems.
THIS means that the gem > gold ratio is going to change. Gems are going to rocket up in value. If you have the cash to spare and plan on buying some gems sell them for gold during a peak this holiday event.
When things die down and the price corrects itself, buy far more gems back for less gold.
Investing and speculating is never a certain thing but right now, there appears to be a good chance that clever investment will earn you many times your investment back over the week to come!
Anyone else noted interesting things happening? Or maybe you have a holiday event prediction that you've bet on and are confident enough to share?