I'll get straight to the point and put you all out of your misery in terms of cooking recipes (which seemed to be the most common speculation:
So congratulations to those of you who guessed right. But the thinking doesn't end here - I'm sure some of you will want to rush to sell - don't just yet.
Some of these buffs are really nice but because of the speculation and stockpiling prices are generally falling. This is day one - wait for more peaks to come.
If you speculated on an item and don't see it here don't fret - there's more to discover. There's an artificing vendor in Lions Arch but I think that the fact it's only a chef and artificer to be conspicuous. It may be they're the only halloween recipe vendors or the others may be in other towns/cities.
We may even see some later. This event is running for a week after all.
And given that it's a week of discoveries we may see particular discoveries (new mystic forge recipes) that drive other prices up as we go on. If you have a material that fits in the forge during this event, don't give up hope (and sell at a considerable loss) if the materials you pick aren't in any recipes you can see today.
I also want to touch on the candy corn there. It's required for EVERYTHING. It's at about 59 copper now. I don't know how abundant it is yet but I DO know that these recipes - all halloween recipes - are available permanently but the ingredients (corn) might not be.
Candy Corn could be a great bet to stockpile - physically or by investment - for later months.
Now, off I go to find out more facts - share anything you spot in the comments below!
This is interesting too (from https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/info/news/Update-Notes-October-22-2012/):
Butter and chocolate no longer drop from loot bags of level 50 and above.
Butter and chocolate no longer drop from Supply Bags dropped by centaurs, Stolen Supplies dropped by ettins, Ritual Bags dropped by Flame Legion, or Materials Bags dropped by Inquest.
Increased the chance to get vanilla beans from herb nodes in the Tarnished Coast and Steamspur Mountains.
Increased the respawn timers for omnomberries, black crocus, ghost pepper, lotus, and Orrian truffles to 5 hours.
Reduced amount of cinnamon dropped from nodes from 3,5 to 1,2. Cinnamon now only comes from green wood nodes.
Reduced amount of walnuts dropped from nodes from 3,5 to 1,2. Walnuts now only come from soft wood nodes.
Removed parsley and thyme from herb nodes in the Tarnished Coast and Steamspur Mountains.
Some things becoming more common and some things becoming more rare. Act accordingly!
Gems to gold trade is at 83s right now. I bought thousands of gems at roughly 70s before this events. Thats for your speculation on that! When do you think is a good time to sell?
I'd keep a close eye on it over the next day or two. Word will get to people that the chests drop the skins which are desirable but the RNG is HORRIBLE (I experimented with 45 - 55 keys).
So people quite a lot of people are going to try a few but as things stand right now the bad taste of gamble gone wrong will hit them after.
So I predict a further increase over the next day or two then a drop off - I don't think if you convert back now you'll lose out on much basically (could be wrong - the final call is up to you guys!)
And of course, that means that these RNG nightmare skins are worth quite a penny - if you get one, and it looks pretty, ignore the prettiness. Selling it is a good idea (it's just a question of when)
Keep an eye on the prices of pieces of candy corn. They're being driven down as they're quite common but they'll be gone after this event whilst the recipes will remain.
Honestly, this is great fun, thundergore, I have to say personally i wasnt looking forward to the event much, I dont care about grinding events much usually (or at least in gw1) and I wished arenanet focussed more on fixing bugs then on creating new content, HOWEVER, I do have to say that I had the best time i had so far playing guild wars just speculating with everyone here.
Im honestly sad that it has died down a bit, refreshing the page like a mad man and gambooling while investing was great, we should try and keep the dialogue going imo, can only be good no?
Glad you had fun - I love dialogue so I don't plan on stopping it (but big events and patches will always be best for it).
As for the end of speculation - that shit never stops!
Candy Corns are interesting me. I'm wondering how many there'll be by the event end, what price they'll go down to and how popular the recipes they're needed for (some of the food buffs look ace - and there's other items to be found) after.
The ONLY sour note to today was dropping keys on the chests - I have this feeling they'll be buffed this event or next as it's just too disappointing for people to see 60 + chests without halloween goodness!
In that spirit of tought, whats everyone thinking about plastic fangs and chattering skulls? Yes they are expensive now already, BUT if they are unavailable and used for some mystic forge recipes for "the gift of xxx"
I'll get one of each and see if the mystic forge wants them - if not they may still be needed for weaponsmith or armorsmith discoveries - the level of the gear doesn't matter, it's the look!
Hi i want to ask a question. I bought 8k candy corn this morning, sold some made small profit.i have 7k candy left and they are on list for 52c.What should i do with them? should i save it for a while?
I think there will be more and more (bar speculators eating them up) in the market so prices should go down.
Ideally you'd want to sell after halloween - even if the items they make aren't that desirable (and given they're pretty intensive on the materials - see below - that's unliekly) reduced supply will pump up the cost
Just copy pasted this here, Again, curious about your opinion/lets keep it going :D
Mystic Forge These Gifts are used for the Perma-Halloween weapons. If you’re interested in getting them, it’s important to get all of the Halloween exclusive items before the event ends. If you have those you can make the recipe whenever you attain the rest of the materials. Gift of Spiders (Recipe) 250 Candy Corn 40 Elonian Wine 10 Crystalline Dust 100 Plastic Fang
Gift of Souls (Recipe) 250 Candy Corn 40 Elonian Wine 10 Crystalline Dust 100 Nougat Center
Gift of Moon (Recipe) 250 Candy Corn 40 Elonian Wine 10 Crystalline Dust 100 Chattering Skulls
Superior Sigil of Night (Recipe) 250 Candy Corn 25 Nougat Center 25 Chattering Skulls 25 Plastic Fangs
Donation to the Cause Donation Packaging Halloween Food 1 Halloween Food 2 Halloween Food 3
Armorsmith, Leatherworker, or Tailoring Superior Rune of the Mad King 200 Candy Corn 25 Nougat Center Onyx Lodestone Orichalcum Ingot
Yeah candy corn im just stocking up a 1.000 a day to spread it out a bit, because i feel like they will go down more as well at least for a couple more days, but given that they create awesome weapons in the mystic forge even post halloween they might go up to at least 1-5s each once they are no longer available, or at least, thats my guess
"Butter and chocolate no longer drop from loot bags of level 50 and above. "Butter and chocolate no longer drop from Supply Bags dropped by centaurs, Stolen Supplies dropped by ettins, Ritual Bags dropped by Flame Legion, or Materials Bags dropped by Inquest." Working for me.
Bags above level 50 are nice, bought 800 medium ritual bags for 3g and got about 3g80s out. Depends on luck, but butter and chocolate are no longer cutting the profit.
Trying some other bags to see which have the best value.
Hey, Id like to do a guest post on what ive purchased so far for halloween already and why and throw out some predictions or something along those lines, would that be possible/can we set it up?
Ok, awesome, ill email it to you over the next few hours.
At the moment im trying to solve a huge problem, i think i bought a bit too much and all my alts are maxed out with items and i still have things in the trading post waiting to get picked up :(
So today I spent a little more good then I would of liked messing around with the Mystic Forge. But I got "Recipe: Superior Rune of the Mad King". As of now this is going for about 1.5 Gold. I am deciding if I should sell this now or hold on to it. I think selling it now is in my best interest since more people will have the item as the event goes on and the price will drop. What do you think?
Event runes are always going to be more novel than regular runes. They'll appeal to completionists now and later.
In nearly every scenario where I deliberate about limited edition halloween items, I'm tempted to say: wait for a while and see if prices go up/supply goes down.
The same applies here. At the same time, I don't think the runes are going to be the go to choice for a profession. Selling now probably wouldn't be the worst thing ever. I can see you getting more down the line though
This is interesting too (from https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/info/news/Update-Notes-October-22-2012/):
ReplyDeleteButter and chocolate no longer drop from loot bags of level 50 and above.
Butter and chocolate no longer drop from Supply Bags dropped by centaurs, Stolen Supplies dropped by ettins, Ritual Bags dropped by Flame Legion, or Materials Bags dropped by Inquest.
Increased the chance to get vanilla beans from herb nodes in the Tarnished Coast and Steamspur Mountains.
Increased the respawn timers for omnomberries, black crocus, ghost pepper, lotus, and Orrian truffles to 5 hours.
Reduced amount of cinnamon dropped from nodes from 3,5 to 1,2. Cinnamon now only comes from green wood nodes.
Reduced amount of walnuts dropped from nodes from 3,5 to 1,2. Walnuts now only come from soft wood nodes.
Removed parsley and thyme from herb nodes in the Tarnished Coast and Steamspur Mountains.
Some things becoming more common and some things becoming more rare. Act accordingly!
Gems to gold trade is at 83s right now. I bought thousands of gems at roughly 70s before this events. Thats for your speculation on that! When do you think is a good time to sell?
ReplyDeleteI'd keep a close eye on it over the next day or two. Word will get to people that the chests drop the skins which are desirable but the RNG is HORRIBLE (I experimented with 45 - 55 keys).
DeleteSo people quite a lot of people are going to try a few but as things stand right now the bad taste of gamble gone wrong will hit them after.
So I predict a further increase over the next day or two then a drop off - I don't think if you convert back now you'll lose out on much basically (could be wrong - the final call is up to you guys!)
And of course, that means that these RNG nightmare skins are worth quite a penny - if you get one, and it looks pretty, ignore the prettiness. Selling it is a good idea (it's just a question of when)
DeleteWere these recipes discoverable? Or did you have to buy them from a vendor?
ReplyDeleteThese were from vendors - they're marked in Lion's Arch with candycorn symbols on the map
DeleteKeep an eye on the prices of pieces of candy corn. They're being driven down as they're quite common but they'll be gone after this event whilst the recipes will remain.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, this is great fun, thundergore, I have to say personally i wasnt looking forward to the event much, I dont care about grinding events much usually (or at least in gw1) and I wished arenanet focussed more on fixing bugs then on creating new content, HOWEVER, I do have to say that I had the best time i had so far playing guild wars just speculating with everyone here.
ReplyDeleteIm honestly sad that it has died down a bit, refreshing the page like a mad man and gambooling while investing was great, we should try and keep the dialogue going imo, can only be good no?
Glad you had fun - I love dialogue so I don't plan on stopping it (but big events and patches will always be best for it).
DeleteAs for the end of speculation - that shit never stops!
Candy Corns are interesting me. I'm wondering how many there'll be by the event end, what price they'll go down to and how popular the recipes they're needed for (some of the food buffs look ace - and there's other items to be found) after.
The ONLY sour note to today was dropping keys on the chests - I have this feeling they'll be buffed this event or next as it's just too disappointing for people to see 60 + chests without halloween goodness!
In that spirit of tought, whats everyone thinking about plastic fangs and chattering skulls? Yes they are expensive now already, BUT if they are unavailable and used for some mystic forge recipes for "the gift of xxx"
ReplyDeleteI feel like they could very well rise up hugeeeee
I'll get one of each and see if the mystic forge wants them - if not they may still be needed for weaponsmith or armorsmith discoveries - the level of the gear doesn't matter, it's the look!
ReplyDeleteEdit: It's armorsmith, artificer and leatherworker...
ReplyDeleteOn that note (quick update :P) Plastic Fang, Piece of Candycorn and Iron ingot go with ???? to make something (armorsmith 75)
Hi i want to ask a question.
ReplyDeleteI bought 8k candy corn this morning, sold some made small profit.i have 7k candy left and they are on list for 52c.What should i do with them? should i save it for a while?
I think there will be more and more (bar speculators eating them up) in the market so prices should go down.
DeleteIdeally you'd want to sell after halloween - even if the items they make aren't that desirable (and given they're pretty intensive on the materials - see below - that's unliekly) reduced supply will pump up the cost
Oh you dont know? hang on ill post some info about it :)
ReplyDeleteJust copy pasted this here, Again, curious about your opinion/lets keep it going :D
ReplyDeleteMystic Forge
These Gifts are used for the Perma-Halloween weapons. If you’re interested in getting them, it’s important to get all of the Halloween exclusive items before the event ends. If you have those you can make the recipe whenever you attain the rest of the materials.
Gift of Spiders (Recipe)
250 Candy Corn
40 Elonian Wine
10 Crystalline Dust
100 Plastic Fang
Gift of Souls (Recipe)
250 Candy Corn
40 Elonian Wine
10 Crystalline Dust
100 Nougat Center
Gift of Moon (Recipe)
250 Candy Corn
40 Elonian Wine
10 Crystalline Dust
100 Chattering Skulls
Superior Sigil of Night (Recipe)
250 Candy Corn
25 Nougat Center
25 Chattering Skulls
25 Plastic Fangs
Donation to the Cause
Donation Packaging
Halloween Food 1
Halloween Food 2
Halloween Food 3
Armorsmith, Leatherworker, or Tailoring
Superior Rune of the Mad King
200 Candy Corn
25 Nougat Center
Onyx Lodestone
Orichalcum Ingot
Excellent - I saw this but had a brain dead moment (thinking I'd found something else)
DeleteAlso this discovery in armorsmithing is bothering me!
DeleteCandycorn
Iron ingot
plastic fang
????
Found them, GW2DB was updated thankfully - http://www.gw2db.com/items/70902-plastic-fang-s
DeleteThat superior rune (6) looks pretty cool. Yes I expect candycorns to be valuable, perhaps very valuable, post halloween.
Just testing if my google account is working, starting to get tired of captcha's :)
ReplyDeleteI hate those captchas that even humans can't guess
DeleteThis imo means, get your hands on as many skulls candy corn and fangs and nougat centers as you can afford, and wait a month
ReplyDeleteanyone who sees it differently? (im the anon there btw)
There would be few things that can go wrong with it - the main drawback would be if the mystic forge created exotics look pants.
DeleteBut if you WAIT to know for certain, you'll be into the higher prices anyway.
The only thing that'll bring them down after that is a ton of supply.
For example, candy corn may yet go down (gatherable from nodes) the other rare crafting materials I'm not sure about
DeleteIm not sure what you mean by "exotics look pants"
ReplyDeleteThese are all used to create permanent halloween weapons
I just mean if the items look bad - I assume they won't myself
Deleteand supply will have to go down eitherway once halloween is over I believe
ReplyDeleteYeah candy corn im just stocking up a 1.000 a day to spread it out a bit, because i feel like they will go down more as well at least for a couple more days, but given that they create awesome weapons in the mystic forge even post halloween they might go up to at least 1-5s each once they are no longer available, or at least, thats my guess
ReplyDeleteGreatsword and scyte (staff) look awesome, so I dont think itll be a bad investment at all to stockpile now
ReplyDeleteStill curious to hear more toughts/points from others too tho :)
"Butter and chocolate no longer drop from loot bags of level 50 and above.
ReplyDelete"Butter and chocolate no longer drop from Supply Bags dropped by centaurs, Stolen Supplies dropped by ettins, Ritual Bags dropped by Flame Legion, or Materials Bags dropped by Inquest." Working for me.
Bags above level 50 are nice, bought 800 medium ritual bags for 3g and got about 3g80s out.
Depends on luck, but butter and chocolate are no longer cutting the profit.
Trying some other bags to see which have the best value.
This is a good point - I was thinking more about the reduced rate of butter and chocolate dropping
DeleteHey, Id like to do a guest post on what ive purchased so far for halloween already and why and throw out some predictions or something along those lines, would that be possible/can we set it up?
ReplyDeleteSure, mail imthundergore@gmail.com and I'll check it out
DeleteOk, awesome, ill email it to you over the next few hours.
DeleteAt the moment im trying to solve a huge problem, i think i bought a bit too much and all my alts are maxed out with items and i still have things in the trading post waiting to get picked up :(
finding a workaround that asap :P
Will microsoft word work?
DeleteWhatever format you like :)
DeleteKeep in mind, butter and chocolate will also rise pretty hugely because of the fact that they are less available now, Its funny that way ;)
ReplyDeletebutter already over doubled since 12 hours ago or so
No wonder... guess whats needed for everyone´s favorite magic find buffood omnomberry bars.... that´s right.. butter ;)
ReplyDeleteZocks
Nice posts!
ReplyDeleteSo today I spent a little more good then I would of liked messing around with the Mystic Forge. But I got "Recipe: Superior Rune of the Mad King". As of now this is going for about 1.5 Gold. I am deciding if I should sell this now or hold on to it. I think selling it now is in my best interest since more people will have the item as the event goes on and the price will drop. What do you think?
Event runes are always going to be more novel than regular runes. They'll appeal to completionists now and later.
DeleteIn nearly every scenario where I deliberate about limited edition halloween items, I'm tempted to say: wait for a while and see if prices go up/supply goes down.
The same applies here. At the same time, I don't think the runes are going to be the go to choice for a profession. Selling now probably wouldn't be the worst thing ever. I can see you getting more down the line though