I work from home. I'm a lucky guy in that respect, though I must admit it's a trial making sure I work instead of game. This week though, this kind of freedom is a real bonus. I don't need to chalk up long hours, I just need to be able to keep an eye on TP prices.
Everyone can also make use of GW2Spidy - unless you work in one of those big brother offices where most of the external internet is barred (been there, done that). But sometimes there's no substitute for debate and exchanging ideas.
I want this post to be a 'go to' area for ideas that I - and you - have over the halloween event. Comment as many times as you want when you get ideas, spot trends or think you may be onto a money spinner. I'll be doing the same.
If something looks like it'll be too big and confusing as a single comment I can post it - if you think you have something to say that'll end up that big, let me know and we'll see about setting up a guest post.
As they say, 2 heads are better than one. Three heads are better still. And so on Keep this post bookmarked and hopefully we'll all make some coin as the week rolls on!
Spicy pumpkin cookie. Chili peppers or ghost peppers? As a level 400 recipe, I'm crossing my fingers on the ghost pepper... chilis probably won't be all that profitable even if they are in the recipe.
Ghost Pepper is at 68 copper right now. Much cheaper than chilli peppers. They're also an 'unloved' 400 chef material. I think they're quite a good bet for future loving of some sort (beyond Halloween).
That's another great thought... but I wasn't alone thinking about the ghost chiles. They started spiking right as I was buying them. (But it had dialed back a bit last time I checked)
I checked the 2nd area (Iron Marches) with my warrior alt - 10 pumpkins there. I think I must've had pumpkins in my bags already on my mesmer in the first spot above
I don't know why people are going for Ghost Peppers when every single recipe so far with "spicy" in it's name used either Chilli or Cayenne Peppers. Ghost are used in "fire chilli" recipes.
Ah but it is not up to us to question what will the recipe will actually be but what people think it will be - in other words, selling at a peak of anticipation before facts are released will still earn you some cash.
I'll sell my ghost peppers before halloween beginns, margin high enough for me, and i have too much of them to take a risk.
But what about (cookie)dough and eggs. Bought Butter and eggs, and made thousands of (cookie)dough, actually i see no risk except of getting killed by cookie monster ;-P
"The Power Of Alts When Farming" worked for me today, 180 strawberrys and 120 pumpkins with 5 Characters in about an hour ;-)
Until the patch is released speculation will continue to drive prices up and down - ghost peppers are uncertain, pumpkins are (if you believe some) uncertain. Things like butter, chocolate and cinnamon are still low but there's masses of them - I'm not too sure if they'll increase by much - but you can easily acquire thousands of each!
Most of the 'logical' assumptions based on the earlier release videos are now too high to jump in on BUT when doubt hits prices drop. Read over all the info you can and contemplate getting pumpkins and strawberries if they go below a point you feel is 'safe'.
That's not the safest or best way now though. You'd need to think a little outside the box. There are other recipes and there are many crafting components.
Spread your bets. I don't want to tell you what to go for - not because I'm hiding anything (I've stated everything I've looked at and invested a bit in) but because when you tell someone else exactly what to gamble on, no matter the odds or returns, and it doesn't work out it feels a bit shitty.
So my advice is check the "dark horses" and spread your bets and never invest more than you can comfortably afford to write off :)
Bowl of Peach Pie Filling is climbing pretty high - 89 copper. I wouldn't buy it the crafting costs (so long as you can get peaches for karma) are 23 copper. 2 of the materials are vendor bought.
I think this'll be a flash in the pan but it never hurts to take a look.
Too good, I threw together some with some mats I had lying around - not sold yet and it's down to 58 now - there was glazed pies (pear and peach) in the preview video - but butter is the only TP mat in this case
Hey me again, I'd love to gamble on some ingredients but i have no clue how to pick em, could you advise me on that?
I understand your non desire to advise me things to gamble on (im pretty much a glorified professional gambler in real life and others often ask for my advice, which i also never give) but pointing me in the right direction, or teaching how to select ingredients to gamble on would help a ton :)
I'd keep an eye on butter, cloves, cinnamon and chocolate. But I'd also leave food stuffs aside and speculate on possible ingredients for these recipes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=u4QM57ri8fE#t=139s the tonic shown at that point.
A few final reminders for anyone looking to make last minute investment guesses:
We've seen artifice type (tonics) and cooking type (recipe) peeks but there are other professions. Don't feel confined to dusts and food stuffs.
Each recipe has a different karma price and I assume a range of profession rating required - some will be in the 150 range, some in the 250 range and so on. Don't think in terms of 400 materials only or 75 materials only.
This event is running for a week and we may see discoveries (new mystic forge recipes) that drive prices up as we go on. If you have a material that fits in the forge during this event, don't give up hope (and sell at a considerable loss) if the materials you pick aren't in any recipes you can see on the first night.
I bought 4000 gems on the 19 of october for 62 silver (24 golds and 80 silver) I sold 4000 gems on the 23 of october for 89silver (35 gold and 60 silver)
So now that the candy corn price has dropped down to about 10c, would it be a good idea to horde up on candy corn to sell once the event is over, month+ from now?
www.pcgamer.com/2012/10/22/guild-wars-2-halloween-update-video-chris-and-tom-try-on-costumes-throw-things-at-kids/
ReplyDeleteI see glazed peach tarts as a recipe. Maybe a tiny increase on butter?
Yep - strawberries too. Pumpkins are spiking again.
DeleteThere's a lot of butter so it's probably a low risk, low reward investment.
Spicy pumpkin cookie. Chili peppers or ghost peppers? As a level 400 recipe, I'm crossing my fingers on the ghost pepper... chilis probably won't be all that profitable even if they are in the recipe.
Deletesince pumpkincookies are spiced, i take an educated guess and buy some cloves and a bit of the pumpkin-spice thingy
DeleteGhost Pepper is at 68 copper right now. Much cheaper than chilli peppers. They're also an 'unloved' 400 chef material. I think they're quite a good bet for future loving of some sort (beyond Halloween).
DeleteThat's another great thought... but I wasn't alone thinking about the ghost chiles. They started spiking right as I was buying them. (But it had dialed back a bit last time I checked)
DeleteAnd ghost peppers are spiking :)
DeletePumpkins are spiking pretty hard but I figure fewer people know about the following two spots:
ReplyDeletehttp://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/File:Gw134.jpg
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/File:Sugar_Pumpkin_Risewild_Hills.png
Do you get 1 pumpkin per node or more? Trying to decide if this is worth the trip with the waypoint cost
ReplyDeleteI just checked - I got roughly 20 from about 8 nodes
DeleteI checked the 2nd area (Iron Marches) with my warrior alt - 10 pumpkins there. I think I must've had pumpkins in my bags already on my mesmer in the first spot above
DeleteI tried both spots and I got a grand total of 34. That was good and easy money (sold at 1s40 ea).
DeleteLet's not forget the other components that may be in each disguise recipe (for example) - assume some logic behind them.
ReplyDeleteI still have an obsession with putrid essences :)
I don't know why people are going for Ghost Peppers when every single recipe so far with "spicy" in it's name used either Chilli or Cayenne Peppers. Ghost are used in "fire chilli" recipes.
ReplyDeleteSource: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Chef
Ah but it is not up to us to question what will the recipe will actually be but what people think it will be - in other words, selling at a peak of anticipation before facts are released will still earn you some cash.
DeleteIt may be that they're an exception or it may be that now is the time to sell - that's a call we all have to make (I find this meta-game great fun)
DeleteI'll sell my ghost peppers before halloween beginns, margin high enough for me, and i have too much of them to take a risk.
DeleteBut what about (cookie)dough and eggs.
Bought Butter and eggs, and made thousands of (cookie)dough, actually i see no risk except of getting killed by cookie monster ;-P
"The Power Of Alts When Farming" worked for me today, 180 strawberrys and 120 pumpkins with 5 Characters in about an hour ;-)
This is why I need more higher level alts! Altoholism is a real problem (but it paid off in your example :P)
Delete<-Same anon that has been looking at ghost chiles all day...
DeleteThere is one spicy recipe that uses ghost chiles: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Spicy_Chocolate_Cookie
I rest my case. (I may still be proven horribly wrong, but this makes me feel there is at least a solid chance!)
I was , It seems, right in with sugar pumpkins! I buyed them for around 37c and they are now almost 2s! Damm I buyed only 1000 back then...
ReplyDeleteZoCks
I just got on i guess im too late to get in on any of the action?
ReplyDeleteUntil the patch is released speculation will continue to drive prices up and down - ghost peppers are uncertain, pumpkins are (if you believe some) uncertain. Things like butter, chocolate and cinnamon are still low but there's masses of them - I'm not too sure if they'll increase by much - but you can easily acquire thousands of each!
DeleteSo imagine your me, and you just signed in now and have some free time, what would you invest in?
ReplyDeleteMost of the 'logical' assumptions based on the earlier release videos are now too high to jump in on BUT when doubt hits prices drop. Read over all the info you can and contemplate getting pumpkins and strawberries if they go below a point you feel is 'safe'.
DeleteThat's not the safest or best way now though. You'd need to think a little outside the box. There are other recipes and there are many crafting components.
Spread your bets. I don't want to tell you what to go for - not because I'm hiding anything (I've stated everything I've looked at and invested a bit in) but because when you tell someone else exactly what to gamble on, no matter the odds or returns, and it doesn't work out it feels a bit shitty.
So my advice is check the "dark horses" and spread your bets and never invest more than you can comfortably afford to write off :)
Gather some pumpkins and Strawberrys.
Deletehttp://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Sugar_Pumpkin
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Strawberry
Easy money if you have alts, the Strawberrys are easy to get even for a level 20.
Or if you are high level go to Orr and get some ghost peppers.
Bowl of Peach Pie Filling is climbing pretty high - 89 copper. I wouldn't buy it the crafting costs (so long as you can get peaches for karma) are 23 copper. 2 of the materials are vendor bought.
ReplyDeleteI think this'll be a flash in the pan but it never hurts to take a look.
Hey there me again, who just signed on in previous post by anon :)
ReplyDeletegathing ghost peppers seems to hard for the g/hour
bowl of peach pie filling seems great tho :o
Too good, I threw together some with some mats I had lying around - not sold yet and it's down to 58 now - there was glazed pies (pear and peach) in the preview video - but butter is the only TP mat in this case
DeleteYeah flash in the pan indeed, luckily not a notable expense
ReplyDeletewouldve been insane if that wouldve worked ;D easy 1000g lol
Hey me again, I'd love to gamble on some ingredients but i have no clue how to pick em, could you advise me on that?
ReplyDeleteI understand your non desire to advise me things to gamble on (im pretty much a glorified professional gambler in real life and others often ask for my advice, which i also never give) but pointing me in the right direction, or teaching how to select ingredients to gamble on would help a ton :)
I'd keep an eye on butter, cloves, cinnamon and chocolate. But I'd also leave food stuffs aside and speculate on possible ingredients for these recipes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=u4QM57ri8fE#t=139s the tonic shown at that point.
DeleteA few final reminders for anyone looking to make last minute investment guesses:
ReplyDeleteWe've seen artifice type (tonics) and cooking type (recipe) peeks but there are other professions. Don't feel confined to dusts and food stuffs.
Each recipe has a different karma price and I assume a range of profession rating required - some will be in the 150 range, some in the 250 range and so on. Don't think in terms of 400 materials only or 75 materials only.
This event is running for a week and we may see discoveries (new mystic forge recipes) that drive prices up as we go on. If you have a material that fits in the forge during this event, don't give up hope (and sell at a considerable loss) if the materials you pick aren't in any recipes you can see on the first night.
Speculated out for now. I am going to get rested before the content drops - there will be plenty to do tomorrow (it's 01:23 23rd October here).
ReplyDeleteExpect a post tomorrow! Keep your comments and information coming - great work
Thanks dude!! Even if I lose my digital shirt, I've had great fun today. :)
DeleteI bought 4000 gems on the 19 of october for 62 silver (24 golds and 80 silver)
ReplyDeleteI sold 4000 gems on the 23 of october for 89silver (35 gold and 60 silver)
Profit!
^_^
I think this is going to be a pretty reliable flip every time a big event rolls round.
DeleteNews is that Anet are even planning on countering those who hit an RNG wall with the chests (will bump up gem prices more reliably each time).
So true.
DeleteI just dont think that sell price wont go over 1 gold tho. So it's better to sell around 90s.
So now that the candy corn price has dropped down to about 10c, would it be a good idea to horde up on candy corn to sell once the event is over, month+ from now?
ReplyDeleteYes I think so. I can only envision a few scenarios in which you'd lose money on candycorns > 20 copper each.
DeleteIt wouldn't even be THAT much (depending on the size of your investment).
These ARE long term investments though. The longer you wait the better it will get (up to next Halloween of course :P).
Bought 10k of candy corn.... whatever it happens i'll have sugar crash for my whole life :D
Delete