Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Act IV Halloween - Waning of the Event



The end is nigh. No more MK dungeon farming - still some time to stock up on mats and aim for achievements. 

I promise, as unlikely as it seems to you - after all you're a smart player who follows the markets so much so that you head to outside resources (like this site!) - the majority of players won't have thought as far ahead as to realise that there will be recipes after the event and no materials for them 'til now. Some won't even realise until it's much, much too late. 

How have you stocked up on so far? I note that candy corn is on the rise already. Not by much but this will continue as people realise it's going away. 

Don't get nervous and list your entire stock of Halloween mats when you see a particular material rise to a little bit more than you paid. A lot of investment-dabblers will do this. This will mean you'll see prices reaching up to plateaus where at random they'll fall. This will be a personal decision by a mats investor "I want to make sure I get money back, at this rate rather than nothing". It's fear on their part but may actually start knee jerk reactions on the part of other investors who think it's a crash. 

You want to think calmly, check around and establish two things if you can before you list some (never all at once, never!) of your stock for sale. 

1) Has any news been released to the community that indicates stocked GW2 Halloween mats will lose value. 
2) Has any major site speculated that NOW is the "peak" time to sell stocked guild wars Halloween mats?

If you can eliminate these two to the best of your ability then you're looking - almost 100% - at a heavy investor or a series of medium investors shedding their stock. Maybe they really need to buy something and are liquidating. Maybe they're panicking. Either way you don't need to follow. Be patient. 

Theoretically there doesn't need to be a peak for a material that won't reenter the economy. This isn't strictly true but bear that in mind if you start to feel the hole drop out of your breeches. 


17 comments:

  1. Well I bought a ton of candy corn but did not even think about buying/looking for the other stuff near vendor price and think I missed the boat on it. I put in some buy orders but the prices are already rising past the point that I am comfy investing (TorT bags going for 35 or so). I will be better prepared for the next event because of this site.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could still be time. Lists like this will get more popular in the community consciousness as time goes on - http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/12eqnj/items_to_grab_before_end_of_halloween_event/

      Delete
  2. I bought over 1k Nougat centers, above 1k Plastic fangs, 1.5k ToT bags, around 5k candy corn. All for 1c above vendor price, except for the candy corn wich I payed 4-5c each for!

    I'm already seeing a profit on the ToT bags :) But no way in hell I will sell just yet!

    Thanks alot for this site btw! Would never had thought about it!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. I bought 1000 Candy Corn for 5c each (plus what I looted which is close to another 1000). And I also bought about 250 Fangs, Skulls and Nougat yesterday for vendor price+1c

    Not sure yet if I'll save them on the off chance I might make The Crossing or Arachnophobia or if I'll sell them if price rises.

    I'm also debating debating buying Gems (with $) since they seem on the rise again and use t all to purchase gold. Since it's around 90s right now and I expect it to drop to about 50s it could make a nice profit (albeit using real money which I don't particularly like doing).

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gems are not likely going to reach the Halloween event rates until the next event or if arenanet makes some kind of super sexy addition to the gem store (users want gems lots and lots)

      Delete
  4. Well, As I expected, skins rised big time, but I didnt see it coming today already! I logged in to buy 3 or 4 chain swords for 4g each, they were already over 15! danmit!
    I decided to still invest 10g for a dagger and hoping will double down the road.

    At least I buyed the past days some shoulder skins for 80s each.. alrwady about around 2g...

    I see investors already trying to sell skins as the amount of skins started to rise even atm its only thru the chests available and suddenly the number ramped up.. so now the price its getting down a bit.. but soon thoese bad boys will be pricy!

    I predicted the chainsaw greatsword to get at least 100g, and its already on his way to that pice.. sadly i dont one of thoese.

    ZoCks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The profit marging with most of the weapon skins had me turned off - I invested almost entirely in mats. But some time, about 2 days back I checked the shoulders and saw them at a nice rate, went for a handful then.

      Spreading investments is always, always good!

      Delete
    2. Great, the dagger I invested 10g in, its now below 2g worth, and the amount of available daggers rised above 200. Thta was quite a lost for me.. Not sure anymore if they will rise any day again.

      At least it was quite learningfull to see a pattern in the holiday events.. use you chance tomake profit in the spikes short before the event starts and short before it ends.

      ZoCks

      Delete
  5. damn those greatsaw skins are at 64G already holy shit.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If you've invested in candy corn, bad news... It'll be here all year long, according to the letter from the mad king. So sell now. -Joey2beers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't find anything online confirming this - going to check wording of letter.

      Delete
    2. "May the sweetness you mine from candy corn nodes sustain you all year long!"

      I don't think this is literal. Open to debate about it of course but I think candy corn investing is still safe.

      Delete
  7. hmmmmm I have invested in afew rare halloween mats...see how things go..made a shit load out of that spike of blc before halloween event.

    on another note this new nov 15 event...anyone got any ideas about what its about/items it might affect?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I bought 2 greatsaw skins for 52G each, highest buyer now is alrdy at 57G. In a couple of weeks it should be even more!

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm sorry guys. I was drunk last night and very well may have misread that letter then panicked and overreacted. That was irresponsible and I apologize. Good catch thunder. I'm sorry buddy. -Joey2beers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol I wouldn't worry about it. Double checking theories before taking action is always best anyway.

      Delete