The servers can't take it, they're buckling under the strain. So it's the perfect time to update you all with a summary of some of the things I'm buying and some of the great suggestions from the comment sections in previous Halloween event posts like this one, this one and this one.
As expected Halloween items have been reaching a price trough - a point below which they won't or can't fall - and in some cases it removes all doubt about the quality of the investment.
Let's take a look at some of the usual suspects - items we've been looking at in posts or comments so far (You can of course include chattering skull and other event themed items as well):
So what am I showing here?
Note the prices on the TP and the vendor prices are almost the same. This is excellent news for an in-game investment. If you invest in any item near vendor price you're making what's known as a low risk investment.
You don't stand to lose out much. At the very worst (if no one wants to buy them ever) they can be vendored and when you're looking at a 1 or 2 copper difference between TP and vendor price that's not much of a loss at all.
I recommend setting some buy orders for these at 1 copper above vendor price. Also check the TP for any items that are 2 or 3 or 4 (you set your own risk here) above vendor price and go wild.
At this point I'm rather confident about event specific item investment. Of course, there are still things that could 'go wrong' but in the examples above it would take Arenanet intervention to specifically remove the vendor price of these items - I can't see why they'd do that.
Hope you get in the servers soon and have a look at the new content (I've been at a few parties - my birthday over the weekend so really want to get caught up on the book hunting, clock tower, achievements and now the dungeon!)
Thundergore
Note/ Candy Corn can't be vendored but I think corn is still a very safe investment, especially at < 5 copper.
What's your opinion on exotics and halloween items like the crossing? Their price fell dramatically asfter the dungeon opened, should I keep them and wait for a comeback or try to minimise loss. I'm more inclined on keeping them, myself!
If you mean Mad Kings Armor, haven't seen any others exotics, i would get rid of them. They are easy to get, and actually the stats suck except you are a bot :-P I don't see them comming back.
Kept some candy corn, but not for profit. I just don't have enough space for low gold per stack investments and the rate candy corn:rares for crafting is almost even.
I will invest into rare halloween items. The maximum loss is 2s50c per stack when bought for 38c, vendor price is 37c.
No, I was talking about Halloween weapon skins like the Crossing and Arachnophobia. These drop from the chests once in a blue moon, and I was wondering what to do with them to maximise profit.
Call me crazy but I see skins like the chainsaw to ramp up to 100g at some point. Sadly i dont have the 25g to get me one. Almost all skins are not avaible as more of 150 pieces.. thats nothig! that bad boys will sell out soon in my opinion.. skyrocketing their prices.
I have a small doubt.... These Mats are only (ONLY) used in making the recipes. Not the product itself. What if?? these recipes cannot be crafted after the event...
Is there any evident proof... that it is possible to craft these recipes after the event... PLEASE EDUCATE ME :)
There'd be no proof in GW2 no statement made. You'd have to study patterns from GW1.
You can't rule out that arenanet would turn off some recipes with the event. This is my only doubt when it comes to investing.
At the same time, I've made a personal decision. I believe that this is unlikely, that the recipes are here to stay. The limitation is on the mats - there's no need to limit the recipes. Eventually all mats will leave the economy or be consumed.
That's my theory and people are welcome to differ and argue and help make sure everyone on the site who's looking into these investments gets the best information.
In the end, investing is about weighing up the risks and thinking about pros and cons and making a very personal decision. No one else can make it for you (if you ask someone else to full on tell you what to do you'd be bypassing that decision).
A Valid point bro.... I am totally with you in this.... I have actually invested 99%...just keeping back 1%...on the mats.... (a few candy corns too)...I bet on this more than the corn...... I was just trying learn .... So that can be smarter in future endeavors..
I have another question... What are the other potential crafting products that uses these mats? - like cooking or armorsmithing or leather work or etc...
as far as i know the cooking stuff isnt worth it. the highest "tier" are the pumpkin cookies, and the boni on them are sub-optimal, if that. so i dont think people will want to craft more of these, since better alternatives are on the market. and the mad king rune/ sigill of night arent that good either. correct me if im wrong, thats just out of my head.
I stocked up on Spicy Pumpkin Cookies myself. I used to buy Omnomberry bars (I'm a 400 chef myself, but most items are usually cheaper to buy than to craft, unless you have the omnomberries from gathering yourself), but Spicy Pumpkin Cookies are a steal.
I'm a staff ele, so the added condition damage is quite nice as well. Sure, you miss out on the 40% GF, but I don't get that many pure money drops anyway.
Most people don't seem to see that the spicy pumpkin cookies also last for 45 minutes in stead of 30. That makes them only 55c per 30min or about 20% of the omnomberry bars.
MAYBE I get 2 silver in gold drops due to the 40% extra gold find in 30 minutes, but I persoanlly think that's very unlikely and rather have the extra damage output in condition damage.
I have to agree, the condition damage makes these great for lots of builds - both on my mesmer and warrior.
It's only a matter of time before people realise that these are good buffs and stock up accordingly - driving the price up and encouraging industrious chefs to craft more (using up candy corn)
question is: how long will it take them. cause alot of people are casual players, who probably just buy what they always bought. plus, omnomberry bars are still way below their production cost, and i think as long as thats the case, people will continue to buy them.
another thing is, people dont like do buy second choice stuff. there is a reason why exotic items are way more expensive than rares, although the increase in stats might not necesseraly justify that. the only reason rares (68-80) have any value is because of 1: their price is basically bound to that of ectoplasm. and 2: they can be converted to exotics in the mystical forge.
i might be wrong there, but i think investing in pumpkin cookies isnt as valuable as investing in their basic materials.
btw, sugar pumpkin might be worth bying now, since they cost around 60-70c before the whole speculation thing started.
I have a question / thought. Considering the insane Gem inflation since a little bit before Halloween I've actually debated spending a few $ to buy some gems and convert them to gold. However since peak at almost 1g for 100 gems a few days ago we're now down to 60s which is much lower. It's also much higher than the 30s it was 2 weeks before Halloween but I'm not sure it's going to drop back down to that level. Do you expect the Gem price to go back up in the final push with people making last minute purchases?
My thought was to spend x$ with gem rate at about 100 gems for 1g, transfer it all to gold and then wait a few weeks. Once the rate would be closer to 100 gems for 50s I could use the gold I had transferred to rebuy the same amount of gems used for say about 75% of the price.
But now it's at 60s so most likely not worth it. What are your thoughts on this. I tend to dislike using real world money when I don't have to.
As it stands right now, the prices of the gem is NOT worth it. It's extremely high right now and I believe after this halloween event is over it'll go back down. However if Anet comes out with another event for Thanksgiving, the prices will probably go back up as we get closer to Thanksgiving since it'll more than likely involve the gem and the gem store. I say wait a little while, wait for the hype to go down and then get them while they're low and before they start going back up again. ~Fazhu
What's your opinion on exotics and halloween items like the crossing? Their price fell dramatically asfter the dungeon opened, should I keep them and wait for a comeback or try to minimise loss. I'm more inclined on keeping them, myself!
ReplyDeleteIf you mean Mad Kings Armor, haven't seen any others exotics, i would get rid of them.
ReplyDeleteThey are easy to get, and actually the stats suck except you are a bot :-P
I don't see them comming back.
Kept some candy corn, but not for profit.
I just don't have enough space for low gold per stack investments and the rate candy corn:rares for crafting is almost even.
I will invest into rare halloween items.
The maximum loss is 2s50c per stack when bought for 38c, vendor price is 37c.
No, I was talking about Halloween weapon skins like the Crossing and Arachnophobia. These drop from the chests once in a blue moon, and I was wondering what to do with them to maximise profit.
DeleteWhat about skins?
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy but I see skins like the chainsaw to ramp up to 100g at some point. Sadly i dont have the 25g to get me one. Almost all skins are not avaible as more of 150 pieces.. thats nothig! that bad boys will sell out soon in my opinion.. skyrocketing their prices.
ZoCks
Sounds interesting, I might see how the markets are when I'm next on. :)
ReplyDeleteI have a small doubt.... These Mats are only (ONLY) used in making the recipes. Not the product itself. What if?? these recipes cannot be crafted after the event...
ReplyDeleteIs there any evident proof... that it is possible to craft these recipes after the event... PLEASE EDUCATE ME :)
There'd be no proof in GW2 no statement made. You'd have to study patterns from GW1.
DeleteYou can't rule out that arenanet would turn off some recipes with the event. This is my only doubt when it comes to investing.
At the same time, I've made a personal decision. I believe that this is unlikely, that the recipes are here to stay. The limitation is on the mats - there's no need to limit the recipes. Eventually all mats will leave the economy or be consumed.
That's my theory and people are welcome to differ and argue and help make sure everyone on the site who's looking into these investments gets the best information.
In the end, investing is about weighing up the risks and thinking about pros and cons and making a very personal decision. No one else can make it for you (if you ask someone else to full on tell you what to do you'd be bypassing that decision).
A Valid point bro.... I am totally with you in this.... I have actually invested 99%...just keeping back 1%...on the mats.... (a few candy corns too)...I bet on this more than the corn...... I was just trying learn .... So that can be smarter in future endeavors..
DeleteI have another question... What are the other potential crafting products that uses these mats? - like cooking or armorsmithing or leather work or etc...
ReplyDeleteas far as i know the cooking stuff isnt worth it. the highest "tier" are the pumpkin cookies, and the boni on them are sub-optimal, if that. so i dont think people will want to craft more of these, since better alternatives are on the market. and the mad king rune/ sigill of night arent that good either.
ReplyDeletecorrect me if im wrong, thats just out of my head.
I don't agree fully, these buffs are definitely worth it at the current price - check them out http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Food#Desserts.
DeleteA flat 26% MF (glazed peach tart)is 30 copper at the moment on the TP.
It's topped only by the spicy pumpkin cookie and omnomberry bar (2.5 SILVER at the moment) which has 30% MF and 40% GF.
Anything else with higher MF is actually MF when under the effect of a boon (unreliable for some player's tastes - including mine).
And as I noted already, the pumpkin cookie is the same MF as an omnomberry bar (BUT no GF) with a pretty decent 70 condition dmg. It's only 82 copper.
There is no way that they can remain at this low price when one of the best alternative flat MF food buffs is so much more expensive.
Then factor in the fact that one of the materials required for these close 2nd buffs is disappearing.
Would love more thoughts on this though - trying to predict the desirability of candy corn is something I find awesome fun :)
I stocked up on Spicy Pumpkin Cookies myself.
DeleteI used to buy Omnomberry bars (I'm a 400 chef myself, but most items are usually cheaper to buy than to craft, unless you have the omnomberries from gathering yourself), but Spicy Pumpkin Cookies are a steal.
I'm a staff ele, so the added condition damage is quite nice as well.
Sure, you miss out on the 40% GF, but I don't get that many pure money drops anyway.
Most people don't seem to see that the spicy pumpkin cookies also last for 45 minutes in stead of 30. That makes them only 55c per 30min or about 20% of the omnomberry bars.
MAYBE I get 2 silver in gold drops due to the 40% extra gold find in 30 minutes, but I persoanlly think that's very unlikely and rather have the extra damage output in condition damage.
I have to agree, the condition damage makes these great for lots of builds - both on my mesmer and warrior.
DeleteIt's only a matter of time before people realise that these are good buffs and stock up accordingly - driving the price up and encouraging industrious chefs to craft more (using up candy corn)
question is: how long will it take them. cause alot of people are casual players, who probably just buy what they always bought. plus, omnomberry bars are still way below their production cost, and i think as long as thats the case, people will continue to buy them.
Deleteanother thing is, people dont like do buy second choice stuff. there is a reason why exotic items are way more expensive than rares, although the increase in stats might not necesseraly justify that.
the only reason rares (68-80) have any value is because of 1: their price is basically bound to that of ectoplasm.
and 2: they can be converted to exotics in the mystical forge.
i might be wrong there, but i think investing in pumpkin cookies isnt as valuable as investing in their basic materials.
btw, sugar pumpkin might be worth bying now, since they cost around 60-70c before the whole speculation thing started.
And for my Necro! I'll check those out more attentively.
DeleteI have a question / thought.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the insane Gem inflation since a little bit before Halloween I've actually debated spending a few $ to buy some gems and convert them to gold.
However since peak at almost 1g for 100 gems a few days ago we're now down to 60s which is much lower. It's also much higher than the 30s it was 2 weeks before Halloween but I'm not sure it's going to drop back down to that level. Do you expect the Gem price to go back up in the final push with people making last minute purchases?
My thought was to spend x$ with gem rate at about 100 gems for 1g, transfer it all to gold and then wait a few weeks. Once the rate would be closer to 100 gems for 50s I could use the gold I had transferred to rebuy the same amount of gems used for say about 75% of the price.
But now it's at 60s so most likely not worth it. What are your thoughts on this. I tend to dislike using real world money when I don't have to.
As it stands right now, the prices of the gem is NOT worth it. It's extremely high right now and I believe after this halloween event is over it'll go back down. However if Anet comes out with another event for Thanksgiving, the prices will probably go back up as we get closer to Thanksgiving since it'll more than likely involve the gem and the gem store. I say wait a little while, wait for the hype to go down and then get them while they're low and before they start going back up again.
Delete~Fazhu
But the $ to Gem price doesn't change now does it?
Delete