Saturday, September 29, 2012

Guild Wars 2 Trading Post Bag Strategy (continued)

Place your orders, open your bags, reap your rewards. If you are interested in learning more about the salvageable bag strategy presented in yesterday's post then I have got some interesting numbers for you. If you have no idea what I'm talking about please refer to this video in yesterday's post and read on. I'm Josh from the GW2 ShoddyCast Channel and this will be my first of many posts here on GW2Riches. Enjoy!
We know the weekend is the busiest time for our Trading Post. That's why last weekend I deemed it appropriate to really put this bag strategy through its paces and see exactly what bag types, if any, could make me a profit. Out of 14 bags types I ran 28 tests; the first test where I purchase 25 bags, and the second where I purchase 100. The factor you'll want to focus on in these trials are the percentages as they measure a bag type's ROI (return on investment). Here were the highlights of my results: 

x 25 @ 20c/each - Small Stolen Supplies Bag

Revenue: 10s 72c
-Cost:         5s 
-List Fee:        52c
-Sale Fee: 1s   7c
= Profit       4s 11c (+38.3%)

x 100 @ 22c/each - Small Stolen Supplies Bag

Revenue: 34s 25c
-Cost:       22s 
-List Fee:   1s 71c
-Sale Fee: 3s 43c
= Profit       7s 11c (+20.8%)
Observations: Between these two tests of the Small Stolen Bags only ~15 minutes passed. Someone upped the buy order by 2 copper which obviously had an effect on my profit margin. Unless it is part of some crazy strategy you cooked up,don't over-cut peoples' buy orders. It only hurts the market you are dealing in.
x 25 @ 38c/each - Medium Ritual Bag

Revenue: 15s 99c
-Cost:       9s   50c
-List Fee:        80c
-Sale Fee: 1s 60c
= Profit       4s   9c (+25.6%)
x 100 @ 38c/each - Medium Ritual Bag

Revenue: 60s 40c
-Cost:       38s 
-List Fee:   3s   2c
-Sale Fee: 6s   4c
= Profit       13s 34c (+22.1%)
Observations: After the Medium Ritual Bag's passed the 100 bag test above I was able to milk it for all it was worth. A good portion of my profit made that weekend came from this particular bag type. That was until someone upped the buy order price yet again a few hours later to 50 copper a bag! I don't know what that person was thinking, but I'm sure he found himself falling short when it came to profit.  50 copper a bag might have worked some other day, but that day the market was saying "no". Profiting from the bag strategy is just as much about the price you get the bags at as it is about how much you get for the crafting materials inside of them. In other words no one should read this post and think "I'll go buy 500 Medium Ritual Bags at 38 copper a piece". The price of crafting materials found in a Medium Ritual Bag may have dropped considerably since last weekend. You must test bags yourself on any given day, and make sure your gains are 20% or more to help protect you from any unforeseen variables; like luck for instance, which we will see at work in the next test. 
x 25 @ 24c/each - Small Miner's Bag

Revenue: 14s 35c
-Cost:         6s 
-List Fee:        72c
-Sale Fee: 1s 44c
= Profit       6s 19c (+43.1%)

x 100 @ 25c/each - Small Miner's Bag

Revenue: 36s 14c
-Cost:       25s 
-List Fee:   1s 81c
-Sale Fee: 3s 72c
= Profit       5s 72c (+15.8%)
Observations: "You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done." Kenny was right. At the end of the 25 bag test for these Small Miner's Bags I was smiling ear to ear thinking I had found the bag that will make me rich overnight. Lucky for me I'm not that dense, so I ran a 100 bag test on the same bags.15.8% return!?! What gives? Luck, that's what. Imagine what would have happened if I had went "all in" prematurely and the return came back negative? That's why you'll want to make sure to run at least a 100 bag test before staking your fortune on a bag type.
I hope you find my trials informative! Now get out there and tinker with this developing strategy and don't forget to post your findings in the comments below so we can all benefit! Speaking of benefit, if you liked this week's episode tune in every Thursday for more episodes of ShoddyCast's Gold Guru posted right here on GW2Riches. And please, show your support and Subscribe!

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  1. Thx for this man, after they posted a vid of you guys here, I went to all your vids and I just loved it :) I subscribed right away :) its good to have all kinds of stuff all at one place (Builds and TP tips) keep it going :)

  2. Meh, prices are already to high to implement this anymore


    1. These are the bags I tested. If you want to make this strategy work for you, you must put it to work yourself with other bag types. There are tons of bag types out there. The bags I used last weekend won't be the same I use the next. Thanks for reading!

  3. Hey glad to hear you have the patience to put up with us ;) Thanks for watching!

  4. The problem with these guides is they destroy all possible ways to earn money till there are none left. None of the guides posted here work, because they all become obsolete when introduced to the public

  5. Do we sell the bags or the items in the bags?

  6. @Anonymous - September 30 1:27 AM

    You sell the items in the bags.

    And just a note on this particular way of making money - this is volatile enough that it's safe. Reason being is because whatever you open and get from a bag is (in itself) a gamble. You can hit the big time and get nothing but valuable loot from every bag you get (big ticket crafting items), or you can completely loose your investment by getting nothing but junk. (Like hordes of sticks of butter, chocolate, or straight copper).

    If you consistently buy bags for low prices, you'll make a decent amount of coin. But the profit is extremely low, and requires you to babysit the market. The less busy the servers are, the higher your profit. Weekends pretty much make this strategy obsolete (Lots of people playing, lots of competition). Weekdays - it's more viable.

    You need to have a lot of starting capital (gold) and patience for this strategy to pay off. It works though, just keep expectations in check.

  7. Great content so far. Keep it up!

    I had about 10 gold floating funds, and an evening to screw around with stats with a large number of bags. I'll post the bags that I was able to have at least a sample of 100 bags, some of them I have sampled many more than this. I haven't been working the listing and sale charges into my calculations, I figure the copper that you retrieve in the bags probably covers this anyway.

    Here are the results:
    (Name) - (Price / bag), (Total Contents Value / bag) (sample volume) (profit)

    Bag of Filched Goods - Purchased 16c each, Sold 22.34c each (225 sampled) 39.6%
    Bag of Pinched Goods - Purchased 19c each, Sold 19.13c each (225 sampled) .6%
    Icy Bag - Purchased 20c each, Sold 24.78 each (225 sampled) 23.9%
    Light Bag of Booty - Purchased 20c each, Sold 31.55c each (125 sampled) 57.7%
    Light Supply Bag - Purchased 24c each, Sold 36.19c each (125 sampled) 50.8%
    Light Treat Bag - Purchased 26c each, Sold 41.38c each (125 sampled) 59.1%
    Medium Ritual Bag - Purchased 45c each, Sold 55.28c each (225 sampled) 22.8%
    Heavy Moldy Bag - Purchased 1s23c each, Sold 1s29.24c each (225 sampled) 5.1%
    Supply Bag - Purchased 30c each, Sold 37.57c each (125 sampled) 25.2%
    Tiny Thorned Bag - Purchased 21c each, Sold 24.01c each (125 sampled) 14.3%
    Bag of Testing Materials - Purchased 21c each, Sold 24.38c each (125 sampled) 16.1%
    Large Ritual Bag - Purchased 43c each, Sold 50.32c each (225 sampled) 17.0%
    Small Supply Bag - Purchased 20c each, Sold 22.19c each (125 sampled) 10.9%
    Medium Moldy Bag - Purchased 40c each, Sold 49.22c each (125 sampled) 23.0%

    Some of these profits were made because my samples were purchased at an unusually low price (for example Light Bag of Booty, Light Supply Bag, and Light Treat Bags). I have another 20 bag types or so that have too few in the sample group to make any real stats on so far. I will update when I have it.

    1. @Versace

      Thank you for the very informative post.

      I made the comment right before yours on viability and volatility, and I have to say you are an incredibly patient or lucky man to score bags for those prices! Keep up the good work.

  8. I guess this has been patched, I couldn´t make money out of this

  9. Hi there, I was very fond when I first read about your strategy so I wanted to do it on large scale. I first ran some test on different bags, and I thought I found the 'good' one, Heavy Moldy bag. So I ran a 50 and 250 test at first, everything seemed right. I bought 1500 bags for 1s/each. On the end I made a 2g loss on the batch :P. It seemed that diminishing returns also kicks in after a certain amount of bags you open, anyone got a thought on this ?

  10. Generaly speaking I have found that the large moldy bags return the best profit rate, they are quite steady in price as is the tier 5 mats in it. When buying Heavy bags you get teh chance for tier 6 items wich go even higer in price but you risk getting a large loss due to not always reciving the profitable mats. I have yet to find one but the best bags would be those that does not include any leather or fabric at tier 5. That is just my observation though.