Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Guild Wars 2 market analysis. [Guest Post by Sam]

The following is a guest post from a community member. They did some analysis of the current markets in Guild Wars 2. The following is their findings and interpretation of it.

Analysis of the Guild Wars 2 markets.
Guild Wars 2 Market Analysis
Hi, I’m Sam, I do market analysis.”

Instead of spending an entire post talking about myself and my qualifications as a MMO “economist” (I use that term very, very lightly), I would much rather start by providing useful information. Let’s jump in with both feet.

The Surge
The Surge is what I call the massive amount of people released into Tyria with the release of Guild Wars 2. This massive group of people all started at near the same time, are all levelling at approximately the same pace, and are all receiving the same crafting materials as they level through the zones. This mass of players causes, for lack of a better term, wonkiness to occur in the supply and demand of the various tiers of crafting materials.* As these players level, the supply surge matches them through the tiers of the crafting materials, however, the demand doesn’t flow as quickly. Currently, Copper Ore is in the highest demand (1.08 mil), with iron (.39 mil), silver (.15 mil), and gold (.14 mil) trailing behind it. In terms of supply, the surge has already passed the copper levels (.24 mil) and is firmly seated in the iron levels (.94 mil)**.

*For the sake of simplicity, I’m currently only looking at metal crafting materials not including orichalcum.
**Values in parenthesis are the amount of orders on the trading post.

The Verdict
As of right now, speculating in any ores or ingots (or any other crafting material) is a pretty risky move and I can not recommend it. I personally have gotten out of iron entirely, even though it appears to be the most likely breakout candidate, resulting in possibly a 50 or even 100% profit in a matter of days. Here are my buy and sell points for ores until 9/14/2012:
Copper Ore 15c/ea in low volume
Iron Ore 4c/ea in low volume
Silver Ore DNB (Do not buy)
Gold Ore 35c/ea
Platinum Ore DNB
Mithril Ore DNB
Orichalcum Ore 385c/ea, refine into ingots (Assuming ingots are at least 9.24, holding ore until the surge hits 80 and starts looking for legendary items, exotic armor and weapons, etc. might be ideal)

Wrapping up
Some things that are important to note over the next few days. The trading post is in flux as ANet works to “perfect” it. This means bugs can make the prices you see at first glance not correct, always click on the individual items to not only see the correct pricing, but also the volume for the buy and sell orders. Additionally, at the moment ANet’s trading post uses a stack instead of a queue for item selling, this means that items that are placed onto the trading post last are sold first. Therefore, there is currently no reason to undercut your competition, just match the lowest order. This is one of the first things I think ANet will change, now that the Trading Post is functional.

Additionally, here is the link to the spreadsheet in google docs I am using to track prices for the markets I find interesting/profitable (currently Metals, Ectos, and Dyes):

Follow me on twitter: @theothersamb

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  1. Google Doc link appears to be broken. Also, very little analysis on WHY you have the prices you have in the The Verdict section. Not really interested in your theories if they aren't articulated. Good start though!

    1. Google Doc seems to be working for me Thomas. As to your second part I will let Sam get in touch with you about that since I didn't write the article. I do think the post is done well. It didnt give me definitive information, but it does get me to think about the market and perhaps that is what he intended. I can't say for sure, but I did find the post to have value. That is just my opinion though and everyone is different.

    2. The prices that were listed there as buy prices were about 80% of what the trading post was going for at the time, meaning if the article was published as I was writing it, and you picked up ores at those prices, you could snag a quick 16% profit. These numbers are now a bit outdated. I had edited the original google doc for the article and made clear that I would not attempt to play the ore market right now as the scope of the surge was much larger as I originally anticipated. (about 3 to 4 times larger, meaning that there's about 3-4 times more supply without a matching increase in demand, since this additional mass of people might not continue playing guildwars or are casuals so will level slower and won't worry about spamming crafting to hit 80, etc.) Any more questions, please let me know by commenting here.

    3. I think the Google Doc issue was me being behind a proxy server, so I apologize for that. And you followed up well to my point about further articulation. GJ and thanks!

      Overall, I will say, I think that articles aimed at overarching strategies and things to look for will play better than "right now, a good price to buy ore is x." Something more along the lines of "When the market is in a state of heavy flux (as it is now due to the game being new and many players starting up), it is wise to not buy high volume items for more than 80% of the TP buy prices. Keeping to this rule of thumb will allow you to turn quick profits by reselling those items during high volume times at 110% of the current lowest sellers price." I mean, that was all BS but just saying information like that.

      Anyway, good job and I hope to see more articles like this!

    4. :) I love this community. I think I have some of the nicest and more friendly people on the internet hanging out here.

      NO i'm not high right now btw. I just expected some of the comments to get a little more negative, but you guys wouldn't do that! Shame on me:P

    5. BTW Thomas, if you ever want to write up your own analysis please feel free to e-mail me. I welcome all people. The most points of view we get the better off we are. The only stupid ideas are the ones that never get shared right?

    6. The goal of the article was to explain the surge and the possible impact that the surge could have on the marketplace. The buy prices were to placate people who don't want to think and just want to be told what to do. Then again, those people probably didn't read that I did not recommend entering the market so they will probably lose money. We'll see those people in a day or two if they come to vent. I might do an article in the future about when to buy in, but I'm far more interested in analyzing the market, assuming people know how to use the information I give them.

  2. "Additionally, at the moment ANet’s trading post uses a stack instead of a queue for item selling, this means that items that are placed onto the trading post last are sold first."

    Do you know whether it's the same with buy orders?

    1. I did not know this. Wow. News to me.

    2. It forces people to completely re-evaluate auction house behavior, and makes people who try to undercut others look like idiots. The only reason to undercut is if you truly believe your item won't sell at the listed price.

  3. If its the same with buy orders, you just have to make a new buy order, if you don't get your item and keeping a buy order for a longer time just doesn't make sense.
    You can't do this with item selling because of the listing fee but just selling small amounts often instead of all items at once seem to be clever.

  4. Sam. When you say you buy these items in "low volume," how low are we talking? I tend to buy and sell in stacks of 200 because anything above that won't process for me for some reason. Does anyone else have this problem?