Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Capitalizing on those lazy players on day one. Don't be one of them!

On opening day and the days following there is going to be a massive demand for trophy's in Guild Wars 2. One of the first things I started looking into when I began working on the Guild Wars 2 Gold Guide was trophy farming.  The most profitable ventures in MMO's are the supply and sale of commodities that other players need.  Players are always going to take the path of least resistance.  Therefore many are likely to buy their materials rather than farm them for themselves.  Use this opportunity to capitalize off of others lazy behavior and don't fall victim to the temptation of doing the same.

The strategy that I plan to use is to wait just a measly 48 hours after the game launches before I start to really hammer away on my professions.  In my guide I stated that you need to get your crafting disciplines on their feet as early as you can.  I still stand by that 100%; however, I also would consider saving money to make money and that would make waiting quite beneficial.  I'm not saying to let your disciplines sit there and collect dust though.  I am saying play the game as you normally would.  All the trophies that you collect which help out your disciplines you should certainly use to advance them and discover new recipes.  Everything else should be sold.  Sell it early because those prices are likely to fall quickly.  Learning from past MMO experiences I am expecting this to happen.  I will explain a bit.

When an MMO first turns it's servers on there are almost no markets which are established.  There are a few that are going to have set price points because they are created using purchasable items, but for the most part we are rolling with a clean slate.  It is because of this that people will go to the trading post and throw their items up for ridiculous amounts of gold.  I don't know any hard numbers for you right now because like I've stated before there is no existing economy to measure against and obtain that data.  With prices sitting sky-high everyone, including you, are going to be posting their items trying to make easy money.  When the undercutting begins the prices are going to start to roll off that cliff and within days will be at a fraction of what they were.  They are going to be driven into the ground.  It is just the nature of players and it always happens.  (I am going to detail how to profit on this in a later post by the way.)

It is this brief period that you are going to sell everything that you possibly can that doesn't directly help you.  You are going to amass a sizable amount of gold by unloading all those trophies.  While other players may be out spending 100 gold on a stack you will get it just 48 hours later, if you choose to buy it, for much less.  Maybe even half the cost.  At this point you can get much cheaper materials and level your discipline for much less.  This all falls under that age old saying "If you are saving money, you are making money."

If you are a bit worried with this strategy just keep a general eye on the markets when the beta rolls around.  It is going to be a bit artificial since people know that they have a finite amount of time to play, but they are still going to have a certain sensibility about what they are purchasing.  When the servers go live on July 20th just jot down on a piece of paper what the prices of ore are on the trading post.  Wait four hours and track them again.  Then wait another four hours and track them again.  Do this as often as you are willing to spend time doing it.  I assure you that after plotting it out on a graph you will see a declining trend in those prices.  Whatever that trend happens to be just remember that it is with people who are radically spending their money.


  1. Where do those people on day 1 get the gold from to buy from the trade post? They don't have millions from the last add-on, as they do in WoW when an expansion drops.

    They can't farm it as they have to reach level 80 first for the best g/h, and we can assume that this takes them about 1 week? I haven't read from anyone who advanced farther then level 30 in the BWE.

    Are they going to buy it for gems? How much gold can they buy until it's depleted (to expensive)? I assume the gem exchange requires people to buy gold for gem as much as people that buy gem for gold or the exchange rate would make it impossible to buy something. Or isn't that linked? (If it isn't I don't see why it would fluctuate.)

    I'm going to assume that the highest price for raw material will be reached about 2 weeks into the game. When enough gold is accumulated and enough player are trying to power level their trade skill after they neglected them while leveling to 80. That somehow matches what I've seen in WoW after a new expansion was dropped.

  2. Players will have gold early on. They may not have the millions that you are referencing from WOW, but remember, we are talking about a shared market across all servers. The opportunity to sell early on is there. The point is you've just got to give yourself the opportunity to sell to those people.

    Players will always spend what little money they may have. It may not be every player, but enough do that the chance to make money is still there. Just because players don’t have a LOT of money doesn’t exactly mean they won’t spend it.

    If 100 people spend 1 gold it is no different than 1 rich person spending 100 gold.

  3. Sure, but during the beta I looted like... 10 silver.

    The gem exchange was more or less 1 gem for 1 gold (+/- 50%).

    And if I remember correctly, 400 gem are sold for $10.

    For $10 I can get like 400 gold. I'm not interested in making gold in GW2 unless I can make substantial more PER DAY then what I can buy for $10. Otherwise the achievement is severely diminished if every kid can achieve more with his dads credit card. :)

    Where's my mistake?

    Will you be able to make much more then 400 gold in the first weekend? Like 4000 gold? Or 40'000?

    Or will the gem/gold exchange rate run rampart and you will get much less then 400 gold for $10 soon after release?

    1. I spent around $150 on gems (12,000 gems) during BWE3 and converted a lot of it over to gold, I got around 150 gold. I think your conversion rate is a little bit off.

      If I remember correctly the price was fluctuating between 100 gems for 100 silver (1 gold) and 40 silver.

    2. There was a lot of goofy stuff going on with the gem exhange during the BWE3. While I would tend to agree with you on your conversion rate there we times where the prices were way out of whack. I recal being able to buy a gem for essentially 60 silver and selling gems for 1 silver.

      By the end of the weekend the prices were pretty well nailed in to what you are stating here. A lot of people impressions are based on a different poitn during the weekend and that could make some people have ridiculous expectations.

      Thanks for the great comment though.

  4. If you are going to spend $10 whenever you need gold that is your choice and perhaps this isn't for you. The attractiveness of GW2 lies in that I don't have to spend a dime on it if i don't want to besides for the game itself.

    Also, tHe prices of gems in the recent beta will likely not reflect what they will be on day one and here is why.

    Many people just weren't going to purchase gems for a beta. They didn't see the point and also many may not have known that they were getting them back at launch.

    1 Gold/Gem I am a bit confused. I was using the same trading company and I never saw gems go above 50-70 Silver/Gem. Then if I went and traded gold for gems I could get 800 for like 4 gold at times. There was something goofy going on with gem trading during the weekend; which is why I haven't posted anything related to the numbers yet until I read more about what was going on.

    I see your overal point, but the idea is to not have to spend money if you don't have to.

  5. > If you are going to spend $10 whenever you need
    > gold that is your choice and perhaps this isn't
    > for you. The attractiveness of GW2 lies in that
    > I don't have to spend a dime on it if i don't
    > want to besides for the game itself.

    That's definitely not what I plan to do. :)

    But let's compare it with WoW. If you play the AH in WoW it's not that hard to end up with something like a million gold. Now, a million gold allows you to do stuff that other people can't do or can't afford. Even if you don't use your gold, for me that's part of its worth - the fact that I could waste it on something that 99% of the population couldn't afford.

    If everyone can buy gems for $10 and afford the same thing the fun of making gold would be vastly reduced for me.

    > 1 Gold/Gem I am a bit confused. I was using the
    > same trading company and I never saw gems go above
    > 50-70 Silver/Gem.

    That's why I said +/-50%. I didn't remember the number correctly but it was more like 1:1 then 1:10 or 1:100.

    > There was something goofy going on with gem trading
    > during the weekend;

    I assume it works like an exchange, depending on how many people sell or buy gold for gems?

    What would you assume will be the ratio between "gold entering the world through in game activities" and "gold entering the world through gem exchange" in the beginning?

    I would assume that the majority of the money comes from "gold entering the world through in game activities" and only a small minority through gem exchange. If that's the case I can't see how the prices could be higher in the first day then after two weeks. Because on day one we'll have more goods created (by the servers) then we'll have "money to spend" created (by the servers).

    Don't underestimate the group of player who will power level to 80 neglecting their trade skills. Then, after reaching 80 and farming some gold they'll spend big bucks to power level their trade skills. But that doesn't happen on day one.

    > I see your overal point, but the idea is to not
    > have to spend money if you don't have to.

    My idea of fun would be to be able to afford things other players can't afford.

    1. The initial flood of gems and a lack of pricing point will put gems much higher on day one.